WTI holds near $75 as market weighs Iran de-escalation against supply risks
WTI remains under pressure after the oil risk premium declined, as the market prices in a 60-day pause in U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude and progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. This has strengthened expectations of additional barrels returning to the market and a recovery in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Supply and inventories limit the downside
Despite the improved geopolitical backdrop, the picture is not entirely bearish. According to the latest EIA data, U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 8.3 million barrels in the week to June 12, while stocks at Cushing also declined. This suggests that the physical market remains relatively tight, especially amid summer demand and high refinery utilization.
What the chart shows
WTI is currently trading near $75.15 after a sharp decline from the $96-98 area. The price remains below key moving averages, so the medium-term bias is still bearish. The nearest support is located around $74-75, followed by $72 and $70. To improve the technical outlook, buyers need to push the price back above $76-78, while a more confident reversal would require a break and hold above $80.
Base case
The base case for WTI remains neutral to negative: diplomatic progress and the possible increase in Iranian supply are limiting upside, while lower U.S. inventories and persistent risks around Hormuz are preventing a rapid sell-off. As long as the price stays below $78-80, rebounds, as I already noted in the article WTI maintains downtrend near support zone, look more corrective than trend-changing.
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