WTI remains under pressure following a sharp decline in geopolitical risks related to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent signs of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran, along with expectations of a gradual recovery in oil flows from the Persian Gulf, have triggered profit-taking after June's rally.
At the same time, market participants remain cautious, as the durability of the current agreements has yet to be fully confirmed.
Technical picture points to continued bearish trend
Based on the 4-hour chart, WTI is trading around $76–77 per barrel after an extended correction from highs above $108. Prices remain firmly below key moving averages, all of which continue to slope downward, confirming the dominance of bearish momentum. Recovery attempts in recent sessions have been capped within the $78–80 area, while immediate support is located around $74–75. A break below this range could pave the way for a deeper decline toward $72 and potentially lower levels. To regain control, bulls would need to push prices above the $80–82 resistance zone.
Fundamental balance gradually shifts toward higher supply
Additional pressure comes from expectations of recovering exports from Persian Gulf producers and an increase in available global supply. Several major financial institutions have already revised their oil price forecasts lower, citing a faster-than-expected normalization of regional exports. Meanwhile, weaker Chinese import demand and signs of slowing consumption in several regions continue to limit the potential for a sustained upside move.
Key factors to watch
In the near term, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of Middle Eastern supply recovery will remain the primary market drivers. As long as WTI trades below the $80–82 zone, consolidation with a downside bias remains the base-case scenario. However, any signs of renewed supply disruptions or escalating geopolitical tensions, as highlighted in the article WTI recovers after selloff as downside risks remain, could quickly restore the risk premium and trigger a sharp rebound from current levels.
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