U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts survey weights after 2025 Consumer Expenditure data gap

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BLS adjusts 2025 survey weights

Highlights

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will adjust survey weights to address the lack of Consumer Expenditure data for October and November 2025 due to a federal funding lapse.
BLS expects to maintain its original schedule by releasing final Chained CPI-U estimates for July–September 2025 in August 2026, annual CE data in October 2026, and the 2027 CPI weight update in February 2027.
BLS aims to minimize market uncertainty by keeping publication timelines for CE and CPI data on track, despite the 2025 data collection disruption.

Data gap response and methodology

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a lapse in appropriations from October 1, 2025, to November 12, 2025, halts Consumer Expenditure Surveys data collection, with fieldwork resuming only on December 5 after federal funding returns on November 13. That interruption means no CE data are collected in October and November 2025.

BLS uses CE data to produce consumer spending estimates and to update spending weights for the Consumer Price Index. To limit the effect of the missing data, the agency evaluates three options, adjusting survey weights, imputing unit-level data, and modeling domain-level estimates, while also weighing operational complexity and the risk of delays to publication.

The agency says it plans to use a survey weight adjustment factor to account for the missing two months of CE data. Its analysis includes consultation with expert panels and comparisons between simulation data and production data for the alternative approaches.

Publication schedule and market relevance

BLS says estimates based on 2025 CE data are expected to remain on schedule despite the disruption. The agency plans to release final Chained CPI-U estimates for July, August, and September 2025 in August 2026, followed by 2025 annual CE estimates and public use microdata in October 2026.

Final Chained CPI-U estimates for October, November, and December 2025 are scheduled for November 2026, and the 2027 CPI weight update is planned for February 2027. BLS also says it plans to post summaries for data users on its website before each release.

The timetable matters for economists, businesses, and policymakers that rely on CE and CPI data to track household spending patterns and inflation. By keeping the publication calendar intact, BLS aims to reduce uncertainty for users of official U.S. price and expenditure statistics.

In our earlier coverage of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, we noted that household confidence improved in June after hitting record lows, even as high living costs continued to weigh on consumers’ finances. We also highlighted that both one-year and five-year inflation expectations edged down only modestly, underscoring that price concerns remained elevated despite the sentiment rebound.

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