AI demand stays strong, but Nvidia needs new catalyst
After a sharp rally and a recent correction, Nvidia is temporarily lacking new major corporate catalysts. Market attention is now gradually shifting toward the company's upcoming quarterly earnings report, which could determine the stock's next major move.
The main recent development for Nvidia was the continued expansion of its AI infrastructure ecosystem. Australia's Firmus Technologies, together with Nvidia and DayOne, plans to build a 360 MW AI Factory in Indonesia. The project is expected to use up to 170,000 Nvidia AI accelerators in 2027–2028 and, according to Firmus estimates, could generate $25–30 billion in contracted revenue over its first six years. This confirms that demand for AI computing infrastructure continues to grow rapidly.
Beyond that, the market is currently experiencing a relative lack of major news, which at this stage may actually be a positive development.
200 SMA triggers a technical rebound
On the daily chart, NVDA tested its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), fully completing the scenario outlined earlier.
For today, candlestick patterns suggest a possible short-term rebound toward the $195–200 zone. The chart shows five consecutive red candles, while the most recent trading session was accompanied by elevated volume, which can signal a potential technical bounce.
For NVDA to resume a move toward $210 and above, the stock will likely need a strong fundamental catalyst. Otherwise, the probability of sideways trading until August 26, the date of the company's quarterly report, will increase significantly.
The RSI (14) remains in neutral territory, meaning a strong directional move would not be limited by this indicator.
Will Nvidia avoid another sell-the-news reaction?
Despite the short-term correction, Nvidia remains one of the strongest companies in the market from a fundamental perspective. Large-scale AI infrastructure projects continue to confirm strong demand for the company's accelerators, but positive headlines alone are no longer enough for investors.
The next key event will be the quarterly earnings report on August 26. It will show whether Nvidia's revenue and profit growth can once again exceed the market's extremely high expectations.
At the same time, the risk of a sell-the-news reaction remains elevated, even if the report is strong.
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