Oil prices fall as Hormuz flows improve despite Iran talks uncertainty

Highlights

Brent crude fell 0.46%, WTI declined 0.60%.
Prices weakened as tanker traffic through Hormuz improved.
Iran says it has exported more than 40 million barrels since the blockade ended.
U.S.-Iran talks remain fragile, keeping geopolitical risk in the market.

Brent crude traded near $73.08 a barrel, down 0.46%, while WTI fell 0.60% to about $69.60. The move came as tanker traffic through Hormuz continued to recover after weeks of disruption, easing fears of a prolonged supply shock in the Middle East, the New York Post reports.

Supply recovery pressures crude

The biggest driver for prices is the improving flow of oil through Hormuz. The waterway, which carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the war, had been severely disrupted during the conflict. Traffic has since resumed, although the recovery remains uneven and difficult to verify.

Iran says it has exported more than 40 million barrels of crude since the U.S. lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports. TankerTrackers.com estimated that Iranian exports may have reached about 50 million barrels over two weeks, using satellite imagery, vessel-tracking data, and port observations.

That rebound has helped pull oil sharply lower from wartime levels. Brent traded near $73 on Wednesday, almost 40% below its April peak of $118 a barrel. The shift reflects a market that is no longer pricing in a full-scale Gulf supply shock, even though the political settlement remains unfinished.

U.S. crude inventories also fell last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data. Crude stocks declined by 6.1 million barrels in the week ended June 26, while gasoline inventories also moved lower, pointing to tighter domestic supplies in the United States.

Talks continue, but risks remain

U.S. negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff returned to Doha for indirect talks involving regional mediators. U.S. officials described the meetings with local leaders as positive, while Qatar lowered expectations by saying the American delegation had not met directly with Iranian representatives.

The June 17 memorandum of understanding ended nearly four months of war, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and created a 60-day negotiation window. That framework has already come under pressure after renewed weekend attacks and disagreements over how the waterway should be governed once the temporary period expires.

Iran has agreed to let ships pass through Hormuz without tolls during the 60-day window, but Tehran has also insisted it will retain influence over the strait’s administration. Any move to impose fees later would likely face resistance from the U.S., Europe, and Gulf Arab states.

A lower price, not a clear all-clear

The fall in oil prices suggests traders see the immediate supply picture improving. Ships are moving again, Iranian exports have resumed, and the worst fears of a prolonged blockage have eased.

But the market has not fully moved past the conflict. Hormuz remains a strategic chokepoint; the ceasefire is temporary, and the issue of future transit rules is unresolved. For now, oil is falling because physical supply is recovering, but the risk of renewed disruption has not disappeared.

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