Kalshi traders price low odds of U.S. taking OpenAI stake in 2026

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Kalshi traders on U.S.-OpenAI stake odds

Highlights

Kalshi traders assign less than 30% probability of the U.S. government acquiring a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic in 2026 despite a reported 5% stake proposal.
Odds are above 60% for government equity stakes in quantum computing firms Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, and semiconductor company GlobalFoundries, aligning with a $2 billion Commerce Department grant announcement in May.
On Kalshi, traders price just over 50% odds for a U.S. stake in Performance Drone Works and below 40% for Neros Technologies, reflecting moderate expectations for government equity in drone companies.

Reported proposal and market pricing

As first reported by Financial Times and cited by CNBC, OpenAI proposed granting the U.S. government a 5% stake in the company. The proposal follows earlier discussions that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman shared with the Trump administration in 2025, according to a source familiar with the matter cited by CNBC last month.

Kalshi's contract on which companies the U.S. government will take a stake in this year is set to resolve based on verification from the government, news outlets or official filings. Despite the reported proposal, traders still see less than 30% odds that Washington acquires a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic.

President Donald Trump last week declined to answer CNBC's question about the proposed OpenAI stake. He instead pointed to the government's 10% stake in Intel last summer, saying he had sought that holding while addressing the chipmaker's problems.

Broader implications for AI, quantum and defense bets

Kalshi pricing suggests traders see stronger prospects for government stakes in other technology companies than in leading AI developers. Odds are well above 60% for stakes this year in quantum computing companies Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, as well as semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries.

That view aligns with a May announcement from the U.S. Commerce Department that it would award $2 billion in grants to nine quantum computing firms. The National Institute of Standards and Technology said at the time it would take minority, non-controlling stakes in each company, with Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and GlobalFoundries among those named.

The possibility of equity deals also extends to drone makers. The Wall Street Journal reported in May, citing people familiar with the matter, that the Trump administration might establish agreements with private-sector drone companies including Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies, with some arrangements potentially involving equity stakes.

On Kalshi, traders assign just over a 50% likelihood to a government stake in Performance Drone Works and less than 40% odds for Neros Technologies. CNBC also discloses that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

Our earlier coverage of OpenAI’s hiring for investment-banking workflows highlighted how the company is targeting financial institutions with specialized Applied AI roles to define quality standards and prototype banker-specific use cases. We also noted that OpenAI had taken early private steps toward a potential IPO, underscoring how questions around funding, equity and corporate strategy are becoming increasingly central as AI firms scale enterprise ambitions.

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