USDA cuts reported beef export sales after data error raises market concerns

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USDA cuts beef export sales

Highlights

USDA revised late-June U.S. beef export sales to 12,064 metric tons from an initially reported 126,062 metric tons after identifying data errors.
Key revisions included cutting reported weekly sales to Chile to 367 tons from 38,434 and to Italy to 350 tons from 32,274, affecting 14 other countries as well.
Market confidence in USDA reports has weakened due to deep staff losses, delays, and large-scale data corrections following the recent launch of a new export sales reporting system.

Revision to late-June sales data

As reported by Reuters, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says exporters sold a net 12,064 metric tons of U.S. beef to foreign buyers in late June, far below the volume the agency originally published a week earlier. USDA says it received incorrect beef export sales data and included it in its weekly report on July 2.

The initial figures showed 2026 sales of 126,062 metric tons in the week ended June 25, nearly 500% higher than a week earlier. On Thursday, USDA revised those numbers lower, including changing reported sales to Chile to 367 tons from 38,434 metric tons and to Italy to 350 tons from 32,274 metric tons, while also cutting sales estimates for 14 other countries.

Traders and analysts had already questioned the unusually large increase because some reported sales to individual countries were several times larger than those countries had ever purchased from the U.S. Before the correction, USDA said on July 2 that multiple sales had been reported late and that it had confirmed the data with an exporter, but on Thursday the agency says the exports were reported in error and gives no further explanation.

Pressure on USDA credibility and beef trade

Confidence in USDA reports has weakened among traders, analysts and farmers after deep staff losses, delays in other reporting and criticism over previous data issues. In the first half of last year, USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, which oversees export sales reporting, lost about 21% of its employees, according to government data.

Austin Schroeder, a commodity analyst at Brugler Marketing & Management, says USDA probably should have caught the error and may have overlooked it. Mike Castle, senior commodities economist at StoneX, says minor corrections might be expected after USDA launched a new export sales reporting system this spring, but not at this scale.

U.S. beef prices are setting records this year because of tight cattle supplies and strong domestic demand for hamburgers and steaks. Exports have declined since 2022 as higher prices and lower production reduce competitiveness, while the U.S. is increasing beef imports to offset limited domestic supplies.

Our previous report on strain in the U.S. equity repo market explained how short-term financing costs spiked sharply around the June quarter-end as demand for leveraged stock exposure intensified. We noted that growing use of leveraged products and concentrated positioning in tech and AI-related names could keep funding pressures elevated and increase the risk of sharper market moves when conditions tighten again.

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