Polymarket seeks margin trading approval in the U.S.

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Polymarket seeks US margin trading

Highlights

Polymarket's U.S. affiliate, Coming Home GBA LLC, has applied for a futures commission merchant license with the National Futures Association to enable margin trading.
Polymarket seeks CFTC approval to amend its rulebook, following Kalshi's March clearance, amid intensifying sector competition and accelerating market growth.
Prediction market volumes reached $51 billion in 2023, are projected to hit $240 billion in 2026, and Bernstein forecasts $1 trillion by 2030.

License application and regulatory path

As reported by CoinDesk, citing Bloomberg, Polymarket's U.S. affiliate, Coming Home GBA LLC, has applied for a futures commission merchant license with the National Futures Association, citing a company representative.

The application is aimed at allowing U.S. users to trade on margin, meaning they can take positions that are not fully collateralized. Polymarket also needs approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to amend its rulebook so such trading can be offered legally in the U.S.

Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi let users place yes-or-no wagers on outcomes tied to events including sports, weather and elections. Margin trading is common in traditional financial markets because it reduces the upfront capital required to open positions.

Sector growth and competitive pressure

Polymarket's filing comes as prediction markets continue to expand rapidly and as competition in the sector intensifies. Kalshi received clearance to offer margin trading in March, setting a regulatory precedent for the category.

The broader market is also scaling quickly, with volumes reaching $51 billion last year and projected to hit about $240 billion in 2026. Bernstein recently said it expects volumes to rise to $1 trillion by 2030 as prediction markets evolve beyond niche wagering into broader information markets spanning sports, crypto, politics and the economy.

Polymarket's latest push follows a marketing campaign announced on Wednesday aimed at persuading policymakers, regulators and potential users that the company is trustworthy. Four years ago, the company agreed to stop serving U.S. customers under a $1.4 million settlement with the CFTC over allegations that it offered unregistered event-based derivatives.

In our earlier report on Kalshi prediction market pricing for U.S. interest rates, we explained how traders were interpreting the Federal Reserve’s split outlook for policy through 2026. We noted that market probabilities implied a meaningful risk of further tightening and limited prospects for rate cuts, highlighting how closely prediction platforms are increasingly used to gauge macro expectations.

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