MSTR climbs nearly 4% after Bitcoin sales to support dividends and buybacks

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Strategy Inc. rises 3.63% today

Highlights

Strategy shifted from a pure Bitcoin hold to a flexible framework, selling 3,588 BTC for $216 million to boost liquidity.
Management authorized up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales and raised its annual preferred stock dividend to 12%.
Shares trade under key moving averages and face sustained bearish pressure, with the 5-day range expected between $90.8 and $103.8.

Largest bitcoin sale and revamped dividends reshape capital structure

Strategy has implemented a Digital Credit Capital Framework and moved away from a strictly buy-and-hold Bitcoin strategy. The company sold 3,588 Bitcoin for about $216 million between June 29 and July 5, 2026, its largest sale to date, aiming to fund preferred stock dividends and increase USD reserves. The framework also permits up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales, increases the annual STRC preferred dividend to 12%, shifts to semi-monthly dividend payments, and authorizes $1 billion in buybacks for both common stock and digital credit securities.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that MSTR's rebound remains technical and limited. The stock continues to set lower lows, trading under major moving averages despite attempts to offset Bitcoin risk with a new capital plan. He sees persistent bearish momentum as shown by MACD, RSI, and negative Bull/Bear Power, suggesting sellers remain firmly in control. Kharitonov highlights that the revised dividend and buyback policies have failed to lift sentiment or reverse the technical downtrend, while oscillator divergence increases uncertainty. In his view, "With trend signals and sentiment both negative, any upside is likely to be short-lived — defensive positioning is warranted here."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the new Digital Credit Capital Framework as a major positive shift. He points to enhanced dividends, buybacks, and greater USD reserves as strengthening investor appeal and building a strong foundation for future growth. Market structure remains bullish from a fundamental perspective, despite recent volatility and corrective pressures. Karapetjanc emphasizes that proactive capital management and semi-monthly dividend cadence set the stage for renewed accumulation. He states, "Given these strategic adjustments, I expect stronger investor demand and believe the bullish structure remains intact over the medium term."

Bearish momentum dominates as moving averages and oscillators diverge

Strategy trades below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages ($103.86, $138.89, and $176.4), highlighting sustained downward pressure across all timeframes. The nearest resistance level is $98.13, while support is established at this week's low of $91.78. Momentum indicators are bearish: MACD is at -14 and ADX at 22.27, both pointing to sell conditions. RSI stands at 37.22 with a sell bias, the CCI is at -53.5 indicating weakness, and the Bull/Bear Power is at -2.52, underscoring dominance by sellers and signaling an oversold condition. The Stochastic RSI is elevated at 80.03, suggesting overbought conditions despite weak overall momentum. Intraday, prices rose $3.41 (3.63%) with an upside gap of $4.93 (5.25%), yet the stock remains near the session low amid ongoing selling pressure after the open. Oscillator divergence is present, with Stochastic RSI signaling overbought, while most other indicators show continued downside risk.

Earlier, analysts noted that Strategy's pivot toward an active capital management framework and increased liquidity marked a significant shift away from its former cautious stance. The present setup underscores this evolving narrative, with the probability of further downside supported by continued technical weakness and the need to monitor $90.8 as a key level for potential bearish continuation.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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