Why is USD/KRW down 0.7% today?

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Us dollar/won slides 0.78% today

Highlights

USD/KRW trades below short- and medium-term moving averages but remains above its 200-day, signaling ongoing weakness with foundational support.
Bearish momentum persists with most indicators confirming selling dominance and a heavy intraday tone near session lows.
Expected five-day range is ₩1,471 to ₩1,514, with a 67% probability of downward movement unless key ceilings are breached.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees sustained bearish momentum in USD/KRW, reinforced by the pair staying below key moving averages. He notes that absence of supportive news limits any possibility for an immediate rebound. Kharitonov points out that downside risks persist as critical support at ₩1,491 looks vulnerable, with momentum indicators deep in oversold territory. He has a guarded outlook, stressing that a break below this floor could accelerate further declines. "Current market structure warns traders to remain defensive, as further selling remains the path of least resistance," he says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the market presents long-term opportunity even as short-term momentum stays negative. He highlights that the pair's resilience above the 200-day moving average suggests bullish structure remains intact underneath current pressures. Karapetjanc is confident broader macro themes may yet drive a reversal, especially if upward momentum reclaims ₩1,497. "Traders should watch for a sustained breakout above ₩1,497, as this could signal new buying opportunities within the expected range," he says.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees short-term sentiment shaped by technical oversold signals and ongoing seller strength. He cautions that USD/KRW is trading near intraday lows but notes support at ₩1,491 is crucial for any stabilization. Turakhiya points to sideways trade between ₩1,471 and ₩1,514 as likely, with volatility favoring active strategies. "I suggest waiting for a decisive break of support or resistance — both could offer sharp new setups for quick trades," he says.

Short-term weakness intensifies amid oversold signals and support tests

USD/KRW trades below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (₩1,529 and ₩1,521), but holds slightly above the 200-day (₩1,482), which signals short- and medium-term weakness while the longer-term floor persists. Resistance is reinforced by the Ichimoku Kijun (₩1,528) and a near-term ceiling at ₩1,497, while immediate support is found at the near-term floor of ₩1,491. Momentum signals remain bearish: the MACD stands at -8.45 and RSI at 35.93, both indicating selling pressure. The ADX shows a neutral trend, with Stochastic RSI, CCI, and BBP all showing oversold readings, underscoring strong intraday seller dominance. The Awesome Oscillator also supports this downward move, with the pair currently trading near session lows and intraday volatility at 1.14%.

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent bearish sentiment and external pressures had kept the Korean won under downside risk against the US dollar. The current environment reinforces this outlook, with traders advised to watch for a potential test of deeper support near ₩1,471 if selling momentum accelerates.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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