US Dollar vs Korean Won stays under pressure as persistent downside momentum and technical signals weigh on the pair

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Usd/krw slides 0.78% to ₩1492.95

Highlights

USD/KRW faces persistent short-term selling pressure, trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
Technical indicators collectively signal oversold conditions and a weak intraday trend, with sellers dominating momentum.
Expected five-day range is ₩1,471–₩1,514, with a 67% probability of continued downside if ₩1,491 support breaks.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes persistent bearish pressure on USD/KRW, as technical signals remain negative and sellers continue to dominate. He is skeptical about any near-term recovery, referencing oversold momentum indicators and intraday weakness. The absence of supportive macro news further undermines confidence in a rebound. Kharitonov cautions that a breach of long-term support at ₩1,491 could accelerate downside risks. He concludes, "I see limited catalysts for reversal and sustained pressure will likely keep the pair vulnerable to further declines."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights the intact longer-term bullish structure despite recent downward moves. He sees the current pullback as an opportunity, with the price holding above the 200-day average and volatility creating potential setups. While news flows are absent, Karapetjanc believes past resilience at these levels signals strong underlying demand. He asserts, "I expect further growth once key resistance at ₩1,497 is reclaimed — the market offers robust upside prospects for medium-term traders."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, views the market as stuck between overlapping technical signals. He notes oversold readings could prompt a tactical bounce, but the prevailing trend suggests staying cautious. Mehta sees the sideways scenario around ₩1,491–₩1,497 as a waiting game for clearer direction. He says, "A contrarian long could work if momentum shifts, but for now, risk management is key given the unresolved setup."

Seller dominance holds as oversold signals confirm downside bias

USD/KRW is trading below the 20-day (₩1,529) and 50-day (₩1,521) moving averages, indicating short- and medium-term pressure from sellers. The price remains slightly above the 200-day average (₩1,482), confirming longer-term support. Key technical levels are the near-term ceiling at ₩1,497 and the floor at ₩1,491, with the Ichimoku Kijun at ₩1,528. Both MA-20 and MA-50 point to a bearish short-term bias, but the MA-50 vs MA-200 alignment supports a bullish longer-term setup. Momentum indicators show a weak intraday tone: the MACD is negative with a sell outlook, ADX of 16.19 suggests a non-trending market, and the RSI at 35.93, CCI at -184.78, and Stochastic RSI at 0 all indicate oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power at -18.24 confirms seller dominance and the Awesome Oscillator remains negative, highlighting ongoing sell momentum. After an upside gap of about ₩3.21 (0.21%), the pair retreated to ₩1,492, marking a 0.78% decline for the day and trading near today's low, with volatility at 1.14%. This signals persistent intraday downside pressure and little indication of a short-term reversal.

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent bearish momentum and technical selling pressure continued to weigh on the USD/KRW pair. The current analysis reinforces this outlook, with traders advised to watch for a potential downside extension if support at ₩1,491 fails in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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