U.S. data centers could overtake Germany and Japan combined in natural gas use by 2035

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Highlights

BloombergNEF projects U.S. data centers will consume about 18 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day by 2035, nearly double previous estimates.
Grid-connected data centers are forecasted to drive an additional 15 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas demand, outpacing all other grid-connected sectors' growth fivefold through 2035.
The forecasted gas demand surge could elevate prices and generate 1 million metric tons of extra greenhouse gas emissions per day, equaling about 12% of current U.S. emissions.

Gas demand outlook tied to AI expansion

As reported by TechCrunch, citing BloombergNEF, U.S. data centers are projected to consume about 18 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day by 2035, making them the second-strongest driver of gas demand growth after LNG exports. That forecast is nearly double what the research group expected nine months ago, even after accounting for the likelihood that not every announced project moves forward.

Companies including Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are announcing plans for new gas-fired power plants at data center sites that bypass the grid. BloombergNEF says those on-site facilities could consume 2.9 billion to 3.4 billion cubic feet per day by 2035, roughly equal to all data center gas consumption today, including gas used to supply grid power.

Still, the larger share of future growth is expected to come from grid-connected facilities. By the middle of the next decade, those data centers are predicted to drive an additional 15 billion cubic feet per day of gas consumption in the power sector, five times more demand growth through 2035 than all other grid-connected sectors combined.

Price and emissions pressure for the U.S. market

If that increase materializes, it could push natural gas prices higher and raise broader risks for power markets. The current buildout depends heavily on relatively stable gas prices, but analysts at Noreva warn that the combined effect of data center expansion and rising LNG exports could send prices sharply upward.

That pressure may be manageable for large technology companies with strong balance sheets, but it could be harder for utility customers to absorb. The shift also carries a significant climate cost, because each cubic foot of natural gas burned releases the equivalent of about 60 grams of carbon dioxide when extraction, processing, and distribution are included, according to the IEA.

On that basis, the added demand from data centers is set to generate about 1 million metric tons of additional greenhouse gas pollution per day. That amounts to roughly 12% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions today, highlighting the trade-off between AI capacity growth and emissions goals.

In our earlier article on Canada’s push to expand sovereign AI computing and data-center capacity, we covered Ottawa’s backing for Bell Canada’s planned Bell AI Fabric buildout in Saskatchewan. We noted the project’s potential to add up to 900 megawatts of capacity as part of a broader national effort to attract large-scale data-centre investment, supported by Canada’s power advantages and a policy focus on responsible development.

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