Iraq security risks rise as U.S. forces end mission

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Iraq security after US exit

Highlights

U.S. forces formally end their mission in Iraq on Wednesday, shifting security responsibilities to Iraqi forces while maintaining targeted training and intelligence support.
Tehran and allied groups celebrate the withdrawal as a strategic win, with analysts warning it may embolden Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias to expand influence in Iraq’s institutions.
Iraqi officials warn Islamic State could exploit the transition period as the country’s security apparatus remains vulnerable, especially due to insufficient air defense capabilities.

Mission end shifts security burden

As reported by BusinessWorld Online, U.S. forces end their mission in Iraq on Wednesday, with the withdrawal centered mainly on an airbase in Erbil in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. The move was agreed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and is carried out by Donald Trump’s administration even as Washington wages war against Iran.

The Pentagon says the United States and its coalition partners formally conclude Operation Inherent Resolve, while targeted training and intelligence support to Iraqi partners continues. Iraqi forces are expected to lead efforts to secure the country and keep the remnants of Islamic State suppressed.

The pullout comes 23 years after U.S.-led forces toppled Saddam Hussein, a period that led to prolonged instability, sectarian conflict and the rise of Islamic State. U.S. troops previously withdrew at the end of 2011, then returned less than three years later to help Iraqi forces fight the militant group in the 2014 to 2017 war.

Regional influence and militant threat

Tehran and its allies celebrate the withdrawal as a strategic win, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps urges Americans to vote out President Trump’s allies in Congress. Iran presents the U.S. departure as a success for its regional axis of resistance and a step toward pushing American forces out of the Middle East.

Analysts and Iraqi security officials warn that the absence of a Western military presence may embolden Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias and expand their influence over state institutions. Baghdad-based political analyst Ahmed Younis says the concern is less about direct Iranian intervention than about proxies feeling increasingly empowered.

Officials also fear Islamic State could use the transition to rebuild through its sleeper cell network. Retired Iraqi Army General Mohammed al-Jubouri says a key test is whether Iraq’s security institutions have a viable post-coalition plan, especially as the country still lacks sufficient air defense capabilities against armed or improvised drones.

Our earlier article on oil staying above $100 amid the U.S.-Iran war explained that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes had recovered to about 80% of prewar levels, even as Tehran claimed the chokepoint was closed. We also noted that Iran’s own oil exports had dropped to zero, yet markets kept pricing in a geopolitical risk premium as fears of renewed disruption persisted.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.