Mexico auto exports slump as U.S. tariffs pressure September shipments

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Mexico auto exports slump

Highlights

Mexico's auto exports fell 12% year-on-year and output dropped 15% in September, marking 2024's steepest export decline amid U.S. tariff pressures.
Automakers including General Motors, Ford, Nissan, and Mercedes-Benz posted significant September export drops, while Kia, BMW, and Mazda helped offset some losses, with Mazda more than doubling monthly exports.
AMIA reports Mexico remains the top foreign car supplier to the U.S. (16% share) despite a 5% export decline to the U.S. in the first nine months of 2026 and a 9% rise to Canada.

September trade and production pressures

As reported by Reuters, data from Mexico's statistics office INEGI show the country's auto exports fall 12% in September from a year earlier, while monthly output drops 15%, marking the sharpest export decline so far this year.

The figures emerge as officials review the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade pact, but Mexican vehicles still face tariffs of 25%. Mexican officials estimate that compliance with regional content rules requiring North American-sourced parts lowers that burden to about 10% to 12%.

Analysts say the tariff regime is disrupting decisions across a sector that depends heavily on the U.S., Mexico's largest export market for autos. Janneth Quiroz, economic analysis director at Monex, says the uncertainty is affecting production and export planning and warns that Mexico's reliance on the U.S. market remains the industry's main vulnerability.

Industry response and economic implications

Domestic demand is offering some support, with vehicle sales in Mexico increasing 8% in September and helping soften the blow for manufacturers. Still, company-level results show uneven performance, with General Motors, Ford and Nissan posting notable export declines during the month.

Mercedes-Benz, which shut a joint plant with Nissan last May, neither produces nor exports any vehicles in September, the first such month since it began shipping abroad eight years ago. Other automakers partly offset the weakness, including Kia, BMW and Mazda, with Mazda more than doubling its monthly exports.

Mexico's main auto industry chamber, AMIA, says in a Wednesday press conference that Mexico remains the top foreign supplier of cars to the U.S., accounting for 16% of light vehicles in a market that has shrunk 2% so far this year. Separate AMIA data show exports to the U.S. decline 5% in the first nine months of 2026, while shipments to Canada, Mexico's second-largest market, rise just over 9%.

Alejandra Vargas, an analyst at Ve Por Mas, or Bx+, says a prolonged slowdown could weigh on automakers' investment decisions, Mexico's manufacturing activity and broader economic growth. She says the course of the industry in coming months continues to depend mainly on how the trade relationship between Mexico and the United States evolves.

In our earlier coverage of weakening U.S. electric vehicle demand, we explained how sales have stayed soft after the $7,500 federal tax credit expired, with consumers increasingly shifting toward hybrids and used EVs. The report also contrasted this with Europe, where stricter emissions rules, wider model availability and more affordable options have helped EVs gain market share, highlighting how policy and model mix are reshaping automakers’ strategies.

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