Nvidia stock dips 2.3% as $30 billion Vast Data deal talks emerge

Highlights

- Nvidia stock is consolidating near $174, with strong technical support around $167 and resistance at $176.

- The company is reportedly in talks to invest in Vast Data at a $30 billion valuation, reinforcing its AI infrastructure strategy.

- Analysts remain bullish, with price targets ranging from $185 to $250 in the near term.

Nvidia (NVDA) is currently consolidating after a sharp run-up earlier in July that pushed the stock to new all-time highs. The current price of $173.72 is just below immediate resistance around $174 to $176, a key short-term ceiling that has repeatedly capped upside over the past two weeks. The next major resistance above that sits near $185, followed by the psychological $190 zone.

Support on the downside appears firm in the $167 to $170 range, corresponding to the 10-day exponential moving average and recent swing lows. Below that, more substantial support lies around $159 to $162, where the 50-day moving average and a rising trendline from April lows converge. The 200-day moving average remains well below at approximately $135, highlighting Nvidia’s extended medium-term bullish trend.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (June 2025 - August 2025). Source: TradingView

Technical indicators are mixed but overall constructive. The RSI stands near 62, suggesting NVDA is not yet overbought. The MACD remains in positive territory, though the histogram has narrowed, indicating a loss of momentum but not a reversal. TradingView’s composite technical score still rates NVDA a strong buy based on moving averages, while oscillators like the stochastic indicator are more neutral. This mixed technical backdrop supports the idea of a consolidation before a potential breakout.

Market context and recent developments

The most notable news development is Nvidia’s reported involvement in a new funding round for Vast Data, alongside Alphabet’s CapitalG. According to Reuters and The Hindu, the investment round could value Vast Data at up to $30 billion, making it one of the highest-valued private AI infrastructure companies globally. Vast specializes in unstructured data management optimized for AI workloads, an area directly complementary to Nvidia’s data center GPU offerings.

The strategic logic of such a move is clear: as Nvidia shifts from being purely a chip provider to a full-stack AI infrastructure player, building an ecosystem that includes software and data services is crucial. Vast Data could play a vital role in this vision, strengthening Nvidia’s moat as competition from AMD, Intel, and custom silicon providers like Huawei and Cerebras intensifies.

Meanwhile, broader market sentiment remains supportive. Sovereign and enterprise AI demand continues to accelerate, and recent earnings reports from big tech—including Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet—have confirmed massive ongoing investment in AI compute. However, macro headwinds persist. U.S.-China trade tensions, new semiconductor export controls, and higher bond yields have recently capped upside in growth stocks, including NVDA.

Price forecast and scenarios

In the near term, the base case is for Nvidia to continue consolidating between $168 and $176. A break above $176 on strong volume would likely open the door to $185, followed by $190. This scenario is supported by the underlying uptrend, the stock’s positioning above all major moving averages, and improving fundamentals from the AI infrastructure space.

A bullish scenario could push NVDA toward $200 if the Vast Data deal is finalized on favorable terms or if Nvidia posts another blowout quarterly result. Conversely, if macro conditions worsen or the broader tech market rolls over, a pullback to $159 to $162 is plausible. A breakdown below that would turn the short-term trend bearish and target $150 as next support.

Nvidia’s stock is navigating broader market volatility, not fundamental weakness, as big tech firms continue ramping up AI investments. Strong capex commitments from Microsoft and Meta highlight sustained demand for Nvidia’s GPUs in enterprise AI and data center infrastructure.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.