Nvidia stock declines 1.8% as resistance holds after ARK buys again

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Nvidia stock declines

Highlights

- Nvidia fell 1.8% to $176.80 after failing to break above $182 resistance.

- ARK Invest resumed buying, while Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $200.

- The stock remains technically strong but faces short-term consolidation amid high valuations and regulatory risks.

This level now acts as immediate resistance, while support is forming near $175, with further support at $165, which coincides with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The 200-day SMA lies significantly lower at around $145, reflecting the strength of Nvidia’s longer-term uptrend. Despite the recent dip, price action remains bullish in structure.

The stock continues to trade well above key moving averages, with upward momentum still intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering in the mid-60s, suggesting the stock is approaching overbought territory, but not yet signaling a major reversal. Bollinger Bands are beginning to tighten, which could precede a breakout move in either direction.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (June 2025 - August 2025). Source: TradingView

Volume was elevated on August 5 and 6, showing renewed institutional activity. Nvidia has seen consistent support on dips from large players, especially during the last two weeks, when the stock consolidated around $170 before breaking higher. Trend-based Fibonacci extension levels from the June low to the July high suggest the next upside target lies around $187–190, provided Nvidia can break through the $182 resistance decisively.

Market context and investor sentiment

Nvidia continues to dominate headlines as the leader in AI chip technology. The company's H100 and upcoming Blackwell GPU architecture have become central to the infrastructure strategies of cloud giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. Nvidia briefly crossed a $4 trillion market capitalization in July 2025, making it the second most valuable public company globally behind Apple.

Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target from $170 to $200, citing improving supply conditions for high-end chips and consistent demand from hyperscalers and enterprise AI initiatives. This bullish forecast helped trigger the recent rally from $165 to $180. The firm also noted that Nvidia’s margins could expand further in the second half of 2025 as more Blackwell GPUs enter production and supply chain bottlenecks ease.

In a noteworthy shift, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has resumed buying Nvidia. On August 5, both the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF and the ARK Space Exploration ETF purchased over 23,000 shares of NVDA combined, amounting to an investment of approximately $4.2 million. This brings Nvidia back into the top 15 holdings of each ETF, signaling renewed conviction from one of the most followed innovation-focused investors.

Price forecast and scenarios

In the short term, Nvidia is likely to consolidate between $175 and $182 as the market awaits further clarity on AI spending from key earnings releases in the sector. A sustained move above $182 would signal strength and open the door to the $185–190 zone, with a potential run toward Morgan Stanley’s $200 price target in the next 2–4 weeks.

The bear case involves a failure to break resistance, followed by renewed concerns about China or weaker-than-expected AI infrastructure spending from major tech firms. In such a scenario, Nvidia could fall back to test $165 support. A break below that level would put the 200-day SMA around $145–150 into play.

Nvidia is ramping up production to meet strong demand from U.S. and Chinese data center clients, with easing export rules enabling renewed chip shipments to China. The company has reportedly ordered 300,000 H20 units from TSMC, highlighting robust customer demand and expanded manufacturing capacity.

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