Silver price prediction: XAG/USD weekly outlook tied to U.S. PPI and jobless claims

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Silver price prediction

Highlights

-Silver down 0.5% today to $38.30 after early Asian gains faded in European session

-Wednesday’s 1.6% rally hit $38.50 but came with the lowest daily volume in over 30 days

-U.S. Core PPI and Unemployment Claims could drive direction if 4-hour EMA support breaks

This intraday pullback has not only offset the Asian session’s gains but also dragged Silver below its weekly opening price, shifting the week back into loss territory. The current decline is finding near-term support at the 4-hour 20 EMA around $38.20. If this support level fails, Silver could give back all of Wednesday’s advance, deepening the weekly loss.

Silver price dynamic (June - Aug 2025). Source: Tradingview

Volume patterns suggest that Wednesday’s rally may have lacked conviction. Despite the strong 1.6% gain, the session recorded the lowest daily trading volume in over 30 days. This divergence between price strength and declining participation points to reduced buying pressure, which could explain why Thursday’s price failed to sustain the previous day’s upside momentum. The steady drop in daily volume over recent sessions is an important signal that traders may be more hesitant to commit aggressively at current levels.

Silver rally loses steam ahead of U.S. inflation and labor data

Fundamentals could also play a decisive role in shaping Silver’s trajectory through the rest of the week. Key U.S. data releases, including the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) and Unemployment Claims, are set to influence sentiment. Core PPI, forecast at 0.2% after a flat reading previously, will be closely watched for signs of inflation trends excluding volatile food and energy components. A higher-than-expected figure could strengthen the U.S. dollar and weigh on non-yielding assets like Silver, while a softer reading might provide support for precious metals.

Similarly, weekly unemployment claims, expected at 225,000 versus the prior 226,000, will offer insights into labor market conditions. Lower-than-expected claims would point to a robust labor market, which could reduce expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Conversely, weaker employment data might bolster the case for policy easing, potentially lending support to Silver prices.

Overall, Silver’s near-term direction hinges on whether the 4-hour EMA support holds and how traders interpret incoming U.S. economic data. If support remains intact and fundamentals tilt dovish, the metal could attempt another upside push. If not, the path toward deeper weekly losses remains open.

Silver rose after weak ISM Services PMI data boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut. Silver broke above $37.50 and closed above the 20-day EMA, confirming bullish momentum.

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