Silver price prediction: XAG/USD slips 0.5% as market awaits U.S. retail sales data

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Sholanke Dele

15.08.2025

Silver price prediction: XAG/USD slips 0.5% as market awaits U.S. retail sales data — Silver traders await U.S. reports

Silver has experienced volatile price action this week, swinging between gains and losses as market sentiment shifted in response to U.S. economic data. The metal began the week by setting a low at $37.50 before climbing to $38.70 on Thursday. However, those gains were short-lived as a sharp 2.3% drop later in the day erased most of the prior session’s advance.

• Silver trades near $37.80 today down 0.5% and 1.43% week-to-date

• PPI jumps 0.9% MoM and jobless claims beat forecasts boosting the U.S. dollar

• Daily RSI at 50 shows indecision ahead of key U.S. economic data later today

The pullback was triggered by renewed U.S. dollar strength following stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) and Weekly Jobless Claims figures. July’s PPI jumped 0.9% month-on-month, significantly above the 0.2% forecast and the flat reading in June. This was the largest monthly increase since June 2022 and pushed the annual rate to 3.3%, exceeding expectations of 2.5% and accelerating from 2.4% previously. In addition, weekly unemployment claims came in at 224,000, slightly better than the forecast of 225,000 and down from the previous 227,000.

Silver price dynamic (May - Aug 2025). Source: Tradingview

These reports boosted the dollar index and weighed on safe-haven metals such as Silver. The initial decline on Thursday found temporary support at the 20-day EMA, but selling pressure persisted into Friday, dragging the price to a three-day low of $37.80.

Silver could rebound if U.S. figures miss expectations and dollar weakens

As of Friday’s European session, Silver is trading near $37.80, recording a daily loss of 0.5% and a week-to-date decline of 1.43%. The current move lower is testing the resilience of the 20-day EMA. Whether this level holds or breaks will likely be influenced by upcoming U.S. data releases later today, including Core Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index, preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations.

If the data is stronger than expected, the dollar could extend its gains, adding further bearish pressure on Silver. In this scenario, the metal may retest the current weekly low, deepening the week’s losses. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures could weigh on the dollar, allowing Silver to hold above the 20-day EMA and potentially recover part of its recent losses.

The daily RSI for Silver now sits around the 50 level, highlighting a state of indecision in the market. Traders are likely to stay on the sidelines until the outcome of the high-impact economic releases provides clearer direction for price movement going into next week.

Silver slid 0.5% to $38.30, reversing part of Wednesday’s low-volume rally. Upcoming U.S. Core PPI and jobless claims could set the next move if the 4-hour EMA support gives way.

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