Silver price prediction: XAG/USD recovery stalls ahead of U.S. Durable Goods data

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Silver price prediction

Highlights

-Silver trades near $38.65 after early rebound, with U.S. data set to shape direction.

-XAG/USD steadies at $38.65 as traders weigh Fed policy uncertainty

-Silver price outlook depends on holding 100 EMA support on 1hr chart

The backdrop to the move is shaped by shifting expectations around the U.S. Federal Reserve. Reports that the central bank may resume cutting interest rates have supported safe haven metals, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Silver. Adding to this, concerns over the Fed’s independence surfaced after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Such political interventions tend to erode confidence in policy stability, which can fuel safe haven demand.

Silver price trajectory (June - August 2025)

Technically, Monday’s 1% decline broke the run of three consecutive bullish sessions from last week. That pullback set the stage for Tuesday’s rebound, but the struggle to sustain gains in the European session highlights the fragile balance between demand and resistance. Traders are watching whether Silver can hold above the 100 EMA at $38.34 or whether further weakness will expose the 20 EMA on the daily chart near $38.08.

Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence data seen pivotal for XAG/USD outlook

The upcoming North American data releases carry potential to shift this balance. Durable Goods Orders, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index are due later in the day. Each has distinct implications for the outlook. Durable Goods Orders, as a forward-looking gauge of production, may influence expectations for industrial demand. Consumer Confidence reflects household spending intentions, a core driver of the U.S. economy. The Richmond Fed index, though often less market-moving, still offers insight into regional manufacturing health.

If the figures come in stronger than expected, the U.S. dollar could rise, creating headwinds for Silver and increasing the risk of a break below the $38.34 level. A weaker set of releases, however, would likely soften the dollar and allow Silver to extend gains back toward last week’s high at $39.06. A move to that level would not only recover Monday’s losses but also tilt the weekly outlook positively.

Silver volume surge on Friday signals strong participation behind the rally. Silver's daily RSI at 60 signalled bullish momentum as the U.S. dollar and yields weakened.

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