Nvidia stock consolidates below 50-MA as Citi cuts target to $200

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Dmytro Kharkov

09.09.2025

Nvidia stock consolidates below 50-MA as Citi cuts target to $200 — Citi recently revised its price target on Nvidia to $200 from $210

As of September 9, Nvidia stock is trading at $168.21, up 0.7% over the past 24 hours. Despite the modest recovery, the stock remains under pressure, trading well below its 50-day moving average and struggling to reclaim critical support levels.

Highlights

- Nvidia stock rose 0.7% to $168.21 but remains below its 50-day moving average, signaling weak short-term momentum.

- Citi cut its price target to $200, pointing to China export restrictions and intensifying AI competition as headwinds.

- Key levels to watch are support at $174 and $159, with resistance near $180–183.

The technical picture for Nvidia is deteriorating. The stock is now trading beneath the 50-day simple moving average, which currently sits around $173.44, a level that once acted as a springboard during previous rallies. The 200-day moving average at approximately $177.62 has not been tested recently and now acts as a long-term ceiling. The short-term 5-day MA is slightly bullish at $166.55, offering tentative near-term support, but this is insufficient to counteract the broader bearish trend.

The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 39 as of this writing, indicating weakening bullish momentum. With the RSI below 50 and trending downward, there is a growing risk that Nvidia could enter oversold territory if it dips below 30. Momentum indicators such as MACD and Stochastics also point to declining strength, and the majority of oscillator-based tools are flashing sell.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (June 2025 - September 2025). Source: TradingView

Key price levels to monitor include support at $174, which has already been breached. If this level fails to hold in the coming sessions, Nvidia could retrace toward $159 and possibly test deeper support around $150. On the upside, resistance is stacked near the $180–$183 range, which now serves as a psychological and technical barrier to any bullish recovery.

AI competition and China restrictions weigh on outlook

The broader market context is adding weight to Nvidia’s short-term challenges. While the NASDAQ opened higher on Tuesday, September 9, gaining 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 66 points, reflecting mixed investor sentiment. Nvidia, a bellwether for the AI sector, finds itself caught in a recalibration phase following mixed signals from the industry.

A major trigger last week was Broadcom’s announcement of a $10 billion custom AI chip order from a hyperscaler client, which stoked concerns about Nvidia’s competitive moat. While Nvidia remains the dominant player in data center GPUs, Broadcom’s design-win highlights growing fragmentation in the AI hardware market and raises the specter of market share erosion.

Citi recently revised its price target on Nvidia to $200 from $210, citing China-related headwinds and the intensifying competition. This revised outlook reflects growing caution even among bullish analysts, and traders have started to reprice Nvidia’s risk profile accordingly. Despite this, Nvidia remains one of the top holdings in institutional portfolios. Mutual funds bought $4.83 billion worth of shares in the past three months, a sign of longer-term confidence in the AI story. However, that longer-term conviction is not translating into short-term price support—at least for now.

Sideways to lower unless $174 is reclaimed

In the short term, Nvidia is likely to remain range-bound unless it can recover and hold above the $174–$175 level. This would signal a potential retest of resistance near $180, with upside capped unless volume increases and momentum indicators reverse direction. Traders are closely watching the $174 zone as a pivot point that could determine whether momentum shifts back in favor of the bulls. Without a decisive move above this level, confidence in a sustainable rebound will remain limited.

The base-case scenario sees Nvidia consolidating between $159 and $174 over the next two weeks. Market participants are likely to await macro clarity, including inflation data and further developments in U.S.–China trade relations, before re-entering aggressively. A period of sideways movement would allow technical indicators like RSI and MACD to reset, creating the foundation for the next directional move. For now, the prevailing sentiment suggests caution, with most investors preferring to wait rather than chase rallies.

Nvidia’s Q2 results raised concerns of slowing AI momentum after a 33% jump in inventories, sparking fears of softening demand or oversupply. However, J.P. Morgan noted that demand still far exceeds supply, with stable lead times and steady shipments of Blackwell racks, framing the inventory build as strategic ahead of a Q3 ramp.

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