Meta stock steadies as TikTok deal speculation fuels momentum

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Highlights

- Meta stock consolidates near $765 as TikTok deal talks lift social media peers.

- A breakout above $770 could push shares toward $800 in the near term.

- Regulatory risks persist, but Meta’s scale supports its structural advantage.

Meta remains within an ascending channel that has defined its uptrend since May, with immediate support from the 20-day EMA at $752.69 and the 50-day EMA at $737.78. Momentum is constructive, with the RSI near 56.7, suggesting scope for further upside. Resistance sits at $770, and a confirmed breakout could open the way toward $800. On the downside, failure to hold $738 would risk exposing $707.

Meta stock price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The technical picture remains resilient after Meta rebounded from its channel support last week, reaffirming a structure of higher lows. While momentum is neutral, positioning leaves room for renewed strength if upcoming catalysts provide a spark.

TikTok deal speculation reshapes outlook

The U.S. Treasury confirmed that a framework agreement on TikTok has been reached, with Presidents Trump and Xi expected to announce details later this week. TikTok’s parent ByteDance faces a divestment mandate, and the outcome of any sale will have direct implications for Meta.

If TikTok is acquired by a buyer lacking advanced advertising capabilities, platforms like Meta, Alphabet, and Snap could capture incremental ad spending. However, if a stronger player with e-commerce or AI expertise steps in, competitive pressures could intensify in the short-form video space, where Meta’s Reels already competes.

Shares across the sector rallied on the news. Alphabet rose 3.4% on AI-related optimism, Snap gained 2.3%, and Pinterest and Reddit traded higher, reflecting investor expectations of a potential redistribution of ad wallet share.

Broader outlook and risks

Meta continues to benefit from robust advertising infrastructure, AI-driven content recommendations, and scale advantages across Facebook and Instagram. The TikTok deal adds an element of optionality, potentially boosting Meta’s top line if TikTok’s innovation capacity weakens under new ownership.

Regulatory risks, however, remain elevated. Beyond U.S. antitrust scrutiny, Chinese regulators could apply their own restrictions, raising uncertainty over how the deal unfolds. Technically, Meta must hold above $738 to avoid breaking its channel, with $800 emerging as the key upside target in the near term.

Previously, we highlighted Meta’s resilience despite regulatory probes into its AI chatbot policies. The latest TikTok headlines reinforce that while regulatory challenges remain, Meta’s scale and adaptability continue to position it favorably in the digital advertising landscape.

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