LVMH stock up 2.4% as luxury demand steadies in Europe

Highlights

- LVMH is trading near €519 with short-term momentum building toward the key €550 resistance level.

- Investor sentiment is supported by stable demand in Western markets and potential brand divestments.

- A breakout above €550 could open the path toward €600, while downside risk remains if Asian demand weakens further.

LVMH's valuation has come under renewed scrutiny due to diverging performance across key geographies, according to SimplyWallSt's recent analysis. The article highlights that while the company continues to post strong performance in its fashion and leather goods segment, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, the slowdown in China remains a major headwind. This divergence has complicated the stock's valuation outlook.

Recent financial reports show that sales in Asia fell in the latest quarter, dragging on group-wide growth. China, which has historically been a strong growth engine for LVMH, has seen weakening consumer sentiment and travel-related spending. However, Western markets have provided partial relief: the U.S. and Europe posted modest sales growth in the most recent quarter, supported by tourism and high-income discretionary spending.

LVMH is reportedly reviewing its brand portfolio, with strategic discussions around the possible divestment of underperforming labels such as Marc Jacobs. Such moves could improve profitability and allow the group to focus on its high-margin core brands including Louis Vuitton, Dior, and Fendi. This streamlining effort is also seen as a response to investor pressure for greater capital efficiency amid slowing global luxury demand.

Short-term strength meets long-term resistance

From a trend and momentum perspective, the 5, 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages have all crossed below the current price, indicating short-term strength. The 100-day MA has also been surpassed, reinforcing the bullish shift in sentiment. However, the long-term 200-day moving average remains above current levels, serving as a potential resistance zone. Until LVMH breaks convincingly above that barrier, the trend remains cautiously constructive but not decisively bullish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) is in the high-50s, a neutral-to-slightly-positive level, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Meanwhile, MACD signals are showing a crossover on some intraday timeframes, suggesting further upside could be possible if volume continues to build. However, oscillators remain mixed overall, reinforcing the need for confirmation through follow-through buying in the coming sessions.

LVMH stock price dynamics (July 2025 - September 2025). Source: TradingView

Support is firmly established around €500, with stronger buying likely to emerge closer to €480 if the stock retraces. On the upside, resistance remains in the €540–€550 range, followed by a potential retest of the psychological €600 level should bullish momentum persist. A decisive breakout above €550 would likely trigger technical buying and attract momentum-driven investors back into the stock.

Tight range holds as €550 breakout test approaches

Bullish case assumes a recovery in Asian luxury demand, supported by fiscal stimulus in China or a rebound in international travel, which could push the stock toward the €550 level. If this resistance is breached, a retest of the €600 psychological mark becomes likely. This scenario also relies on continued strength in Europe and North America, along with effective brand restructuring. Investor sentiment would likely turn more positive under these conditions, reinforcing momentum and attracting institutional inflows.

Neutral case reflects a backdrop where macroeconomic signals remain mixed, with solid demand in Western markets offsetting ongoing weakness in Asia. In this environment, LVMH may continue trading between €480 and €550, repeatedly testing both support and resistance. A clear breakout would require a significant catalyst such as stronger-than-expected earnings or favorable geopolitical shifts.

LVMH faces new regulatory pressure in France as a proposed “billionaire tax” gains public and political support, potentially adding €700–800 million to its annual tax burden. CEO Bernard Arnault has warned the measure could trigger capital flight and harm France’s business climate.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.