Gold price prediction: XAU advances on record rally fueled by Fed cut hopes and trade concerns

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Gold fuel record rally

Highlights

- Gold hits record highs above $4,200 amid safe-haven demand.

- Powell’s remarks on weak jobs growth boost Fed rate-cut expectations.

- Technical structure supports further gains toward $4,250–$4,300.

On the charts, gold remains firmly within a rising parallel channel that has guided its advance for nearly two months. The recent surge came after a successful defense of the $4,060–$4,100 zone, where the channel’s midline aligned with the Supertrend indicator at $4,083. The Parabolic SAR dots, now trailing below $4,136, confirm continued bullish momentum.

Gold price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Each pullback into this zone has been met with renewed buying, underscoring the market’s resilience. As long as prices remain within this rising structure, the broader uptrend remains intact. Immediate support lies at $4,100, followed by stronger demand near $4,065. A sustained hold above these levels would keep the door open for another push toward $4,250 and potentially $4,300. However, given that price is now testing the upper channel boundary, short-term consolidation cannot be ruled out before the next leg higher.

Macroeconomic tailwinds strengthen demand

The rally is being reinforced by global uncertainty. Heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing have reignited risk aversion, with the U.S. threatening new trade measures and China imposing sanctions on American allies. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has compounded investor unease, prompting a flight toward safe-haven assets.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments on slowing job growth added another catalyst, as markets increasingly price in two additional rate cuts before year-end. The shift in monetary expectations has weakened the dollar and lowered Treasury yields, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. With central banks globally maintaining accommodative stances, institutional investors have turned to the metal as both a hedge against policy uncertainty and a store of value in volatile markets.

Outlook

Gold’s next test lies in whether it can sustain above $4,200. A decisive breakout could pave the way for a continued rally toward $4,250–$4,300, while a retreat toward $4,060–$4,100 would likely represent a routine consolidation within a broader uptrend. The long-term technical structure remains firmly bullish, supported by strong fundamentals and persistent safe-haven demand.

Previously, we noted that gold’s breakout above $4,100 signaled the start of an extended bullish phase underpinned by macroeconomic risks and easing expectations. That assessment continues to hold, with the metal now trading deep within uncharted territory and investor sentiment overwhelmingly favoring further upside. Unless a shift in policy or geopolitics cools safe-haven flows, gold’s upward momentum appears poised to continue through the fourth quarter.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.