Silver price prediction: XAG/USD correction deepens to four-week low

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Silver price prediction

Highlights

- Silver drops over 2% today, marking second consecutive weekly decline since August.

- RSI turns bearish for first time since August, confirming sellers dominate short-term control.

- Dollar weakness and improved U.S.–China ties reduce safe-haven flows toward Silver.

In the early European session today, silver has fallen more than 2% from Monday’s close, breaking below $45.7. This move deepens the week-to-date loss to 5.6%, marking the second consecutive week of declines and the first such occurrence since August. The cumulative retracement from the October peak now exceeds 15%, suggesting the bullish momentum that drove the rally has been replaced by persistent profit-taking and a shift in sentiment.

Silver price dynamics (Sept - Oct 2025). Source: Tradingview

Technically, silver’s weakness is confirmed by the daily RSI, which has entered bearish territory for the first time since August, indicating that sellers hold control of short-term momentum. The next visible technical support sits at the 50-day EMA near $45.5, which could temporarily cushion the decline if buyers attempt to stabilise prices before the FOMC meeting outcome.

FOMC decision holds key to whether silver finds footing

Traders had expected silver to find relief from the weakening U.S. dollar, given the market’s growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice before the year ends. The dollar has remained soft for the second consecutive day, yet silver prices have failed to benefit. This disconnect between the Fed’s dovish outlook and silver’s bearish performance highlights reduced safe-haven demand, as investors rotate into risk assets.

Moreover, improving trade relations between the United States and China has contributed to a stronger risk appetite across markets. The easing geopolitical tone has shifted demand away from defensive assets such as precious metals. This development compounds pressure on silver, as investors seek higher-yielding alternatives ahead of the Fed’s policy decision.

Overall, silver’s technical and fundamental backdrop points to a market in correction rather than recovery. The daily structure suggests that unless the 50-day EMA holds as a firm base, further weakness could test the next support zone near $44.8. Traders are now watching whether Wednesday’s FOMC decision provides enough stimulus to either stabilise the metal or extend its retracement toward deeper lows.

We discussed silver consolidating between $49.45 and $47.5 as EMA crossovers confirmed near-term weakness. Bearish RSI readings and fading safe-haven demand weighed on silver’s recovery potential.

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