Nasdaq Composite rises 0.66% as weak ADP data boosts December rate cut hopes

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Sholanke Dele

12.11.2025

Nasdaq Composite rises 0.66% as weak ADP data boosts December rate cut hopes — Nasdaq futures rose 0.66%

The Nasdaq Composite Index strengthened in Wednesday’s premarket session as investor sentiment improved following weaker U.S. labor data and renewed expectations of a December rate cut. Nasdaq futures rose 0.66%, or about 168 points, reaching a five-day-high. The move marked a continuation of the bullish recovery that began late last week near 24,700 and has now lifted the index’s week-to-date gain to 2.6%.

- Nasdaq futures rose 0.66% to a five-day high as traders anticipate a December rate cut.

- Support at 23,300 Fibonacci and 100 EMA confirmed buyers in control after Tuesday’s correction.

- Weak labor data raised Fed rate cut probability to 67%, fuelling risk appetite.

On Tuesday, the Nasdaq briefly declined as weakness in technology stocks offset gains across broader sectors. The index dropped from Monday’s close at 23,530 to a session low of 23,300 before finding support at the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level. That level was reinforced by the 20 and 100 EMAs on the 4-hour chart, which helped the index recover to close at 23,470. The confluence of technical supports suggested that buyers were defending the short-term trend structure following a week of corrections from the all-time high at 26,400.

Nasdaq price dynamic (Oct - Nov 2025). Source: Tradingview

The recovery was driven by optimism that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown was nearing an end. Late Monday, the Senate passed a spending package to fund operations until January 30, sending the bill to the House for final approval. A successful passage would reopen government agencies, restore economic reporting, and relieve pressure on the broader economy, which has started to show signs of strain from missed paychecks and suspended data releases.

Nasdaq outlook hinges on upcoming delayed economic reports

While the reopening could limit safe-haven demand in the medium term, the weaker-than-expected labor data from ADP provided a counterbalance. The report showed that private sector employment dropped by more than 11,000 per week on average in the four weeks through October 25, suggesting a slowdown in job creation. The data prompted traders to increase bets on a December rate cut, raising the probability to 67% from 62% before the release, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

The softer labor outlook has supported risk assets such as equities, as investors anticipate easier monetary policy. The Nasdaq’s rebound reflects this shift, highlighting renewed appetite for growth and AI-focused stocks that were recently pressured by valuation concerns.

Looking ahead, the sustainability of this week’s rally depends on the outcome of the House vote on the spending bill and the tone of forthcoming economic releases once delayed reports begin to surface. A smooth reopening of the government, combined with evidence of slowing economic momentum, could keep the Fed’s policy path in focus and extend support for Nasdaq’s ongoing recovery toward the 24,000 level.

We discussed as the Nasdaq Composite rebounded 1.25% after last week’s 5.77% drop. AI stocks and chipmakers lifted sentiment as investors rebuilt exposure to growth assets.

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