UK climate campaigners warn policy decisions could raise net zero risks

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UK net zero policy risks

Highlights

Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth warn that combined UK policies—Rosebank oilfield, Heathrow expansion, weaker EV mandates, heat pump cuts—could add 402 million tonnes of CO2 in 25 years.
The North Sea fossil fuel industry seeks approval for Rosebank, a project campaigners say would produce higher emissions than the recently approved Jackdaw gasfield amid mounting policy pressure.
Carmakers and airlines lobby for weaker EV targets and Heathrow expansion, while the budget may cut boiler upgrade grants despite government claims of £110 billion in clean power investment.

Campaigners set out cumulative emissions case

As reported by The Guardian, Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth say in a letter to Prime Minister Andy Burnham that ministers should assess major climate-related decisions together rather than in isolation across separate departments.

The groups argue that approving drilling at the Rosebank oilfield, expanding Heathrow airport, weakening the UK’s electric vehicle sales targets and cutting heat pump grants would together generate 402 million tonnes of CO2 over the next 25 years. They say that total would exceed the annual emissions of 106 coal plants and would be enough to put the UK’s carbon budgets and net zero plans at risk.

Doug Parr, chief scientist at Greenpeace, says the government faces a series of decisions in the coming months that could shape its climate legacy. He warns there is a risk the administration reverses progress already made on cutting emissions linked to heatwaves and droughts if those choices are made without considering their cumulative effect.

Energy, transport and heating choices in focus

Pressure over the policy mix is mounting after the government last week approved drilling at the Jackdaw gasfield, despite criticism from campaigners over its expected jobs impact, household cost benefits and tax contribution. The North Sea fossil fuel industry is now seeking approval for the more controversial Rosebank project west of Shetland, which campaigners say would produce higher emissions.

At the same time, carmakers are lobbying for the government to dilute its mandate for all new car and van sales to be electric by 2035, including a proposal that up to half of sales in 2030 could still be petrol or diesel vehicles. Analysis cited from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit says the longer-term emissions effect of weaker EV uptake could amount to about 60% of Rosebank’s emissions because vehicles remain in use for many years.

Airlines are also pressing for a Heathrow expansion, a move that Chancellor John Healey strongly supports on economic growth grounds, while campaigners dispute that case and point to expansion already under way at Gatwick. Healey is also seen as likely in Wednesday’s budget to cut the boiler upgrade scheme, which provides grants for households replacing gas boilers with heat pumps, despite the potential savings in gas use and the slow pace of the shift to electric heating.

Imogen Dow, climate lead at Friends of the Earth, says rejecting those higher-carbon options would support a cleaner and more prosperous economy. A government spokesperson says reindustrialisation does not mean abandoning climate obligations and points to £110 billion of announced clean power investment over the past two years, alongside jobs supported through renewable energy auctions.

Our earlier coverage of the Bank of England’s assessment of the energy price shock highlighted officials’ view that the UK economy has absorbed higher energy costs better than initially expected, helped by fiscal measures and central bank interventions to support market stability. It also noted that inflation and market volatility remain key risks, leaving policymakers focused on close monitoring and the need to adapt their approach as conditions evolve.

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