AI political groups spend millions in U.S. midterms, see mixed results

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AI groups' mixed midterm results

Highlights

AI-focused PACs American Mission and Building the Future spend $4.8 million backing Darlene Graham, who loses, while Think Big sees success with Jared Moskowitz’s reelection.
Groups advocating AI safeguards, including Public First and Guardrails Alliance, record mixed results but contribute $3 million to Scott Wiener’s leading campaign and spend heavily against losing GOP candidates.
Leading the Future spends $27.38 million in primaries and shifts its focus to 2028, emphasizing early influence on AI policy agendas while facing rising voter distrust of billionaire-backed AI spending.

Midterm spending shows uneven returns

As reported by TechCrunch, political groups supporting and opposing the AI industry spend millions of dollars to influence Tuesday’s midterm elections, but several of the most heavily backed candidates lose their races.

On the industry side, two AI-focused political action committees, American Mission and Building the Future, collectively spend $4.8 million to back South Carolina Senate candidate Darlene Graham, who loses. American Mission is the Republican spending arm of Leading the Future, a broader political group backed by OpenAI President Greg Brockman and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.

American Mission also spends more than $500,000 each supporting Republican House candidates Aaron Flint in Montana and Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina, and both lose. Leading the Future’s Democratic spending arm, Think Big, fares better by backing Florida Representative Jared Moskowitz, who wins reelection.

Groups advocating stronger AI safeguards also post mixed results. Public First, which is backed by Anthropic, supports several Republicans who lose through its affiliated PAC, but records more success with Democratic candidates. It also contributes $3 million to a PAC supporting California state Senator Scott Wiener, who is leading his race at the time of publication.

Guardrails Alliance, which seeks to make taking money from AI companies a political liability, spends more than $1 million each opposing California Representative Jimmy Gomez and Montana’s Flint, and both lose. The group also spends $300,000 supporting Angela Gonzales-Torres, who defeats Gomez.

2028 battle over AI rules is already taking shape

Separating the effect of AI-related political spending from the broader Democratic wave in Tuesday’s elections remains difficult. Elon Musk, who reportedly pours half a billion dollars into supporting Republicans in the midterms, also sees many of his candidates lose, while Leading the Future backs some candidates it considers likely winners only to watch them lose to Democrats.

For Leading the Future, the general election is not the main focus. The group tells TechCrunch before Election Day that primaries are a more effective use of money because early spending can build name recognition and help candidates shape AI policy agendas.

Leading the Future spends $27.38 million in the primaries, including $8 million opposing New York Assembly member Alex Bores, who loses his congressional bid in June. When deciding whether to enter a general election race, the group assesses how competitive the contest is, whether spending could change the result, and whether it should preserve resources for future elections.

Charlie Blaettler, political director of Guardrails Alliance, says Leading the Future likely keeps its general election spending relatively low to avoid becoming a campaign issue itself. He argues that voters are distrustful of AI billionaires and hostile to the political spending and lobbying tied to the tech industry.

The central policy fight among AI PACs is whether Congress should establish a national AI framework that overrides state laws, or whether states should retain authority to impose their own safeguards. Neither side appears ready to retreat, with Leading the Future saying it plans to keep spending in the 2028 elections and Guardrails Alliance saying it will continue opposing candidates backed by the AI industry.

In our earlier article on the late-cycle surge in Republican midterm advertising, we covered how the GOP sharply ramped up ad outlays as polling tightened even in races once considered safe. We also noted that higher fuel and broader affordability pressures were shaping voter sentiment and forcing both parties to reallocate resources toward the most competitive contests.

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