COP31 hosts target faster electrification as 1.5C climate goal slips out of reach

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COP31 targets electrification shift

Highlights

UN climate talks in Türkiye target raising electricity's share of global energy use to 35 percent by 2035, up from today's 23 percent.
Antalya summit is the first UN climate conference to concede the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit is now out of reach, with projections at 2.6 degrees.
Australia and Türkiye face credibility challenges as Australia continues coal expansion and Türkiye generates 55 percent of electricity from coal and gas.

Electrification target shapes Antalya agenda

As reported by ABC News, the central aim of this week's UN climate talks in Türkiye is a voluntary pledge to lift electricity's share of global energy use to 35 per cent by 2035. Australia and Türkiye, serving as joint presidents of the COP31 meeting, say the summit is focused more on implementing measures already agreed than on setting major new targets.

At the opening session, Australia's climate change minister Chris Bowen says the conference is meeting at "a moment of consequence" as climate impacts intensify across regions including Nepal and Europe. He says the world had once been heading toward nearly 4 degrees of warming, but current projections are now closer to 2.6 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

The Antalya meeting is also the first UN climate conference to openly concede that the Paris goal of limiting long-term warming to 1.5 degrees will not be met. According to the International Energy Agency, electricity currently accounts for 23 per cent of energy use and is already forecast to rise to 30 per cent by 2035 under existing policies.

Fossil fuel dependence clouds summit credibility

Debate over cutting fossil fuel use remains a major tension at the summit, even though the issue is not formally on the agenda. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell says the recent cost chaos tied to fossil fuels has sent a global shockwave through households and inflation.

Australia is facing criticism, particularly from Pacific nations, for allowing coal mining to expand and for extending the North West Shelf gas project. Türkiye is also under scrutiny because it remains Europe's largest coal power generator, with about 55 per cent of its electricity produced from coal and natural gas.

Talks in Antalya are expected to place heavy emphasis on climate finance for poorer countries, support for adapting energy systems and measures to cut methane emissions from oil, gas and waste. Climate Council member and economist Nicki Hutley says a global electrification push would help Australian households, but argues it must be matched by a clearer commitment to move away from coal, oil and gas.

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