Global bond issuance growth slows after 2026 surge, S&P Global says

Traders Union
All News
Financial Institutions
Global bond issuance growth slows

Highlights

S&P Global forecasts total global bond issuance growth of 12.2% in 2026, reaching $9.12 trillion year-to-date versus $8.09 trillion in 2025.
For 2027, overall issuance growth is expected to slow sharply to 2.7%, with structured finance declining 7%, diverging from sector gains in nonfinancials and public finance.
Sector forecasts for 2026 include nonfinancial issuance growth of 14%, financial services 11%, structured finance 20%, U.S. public finance 8%, and international public finance 5%.

Issuance outlook across major sectors

According to S&P Global, its credit trends report forecasts total global issuance growth of 12.2% in 2026, with nonfinancial issuance rising 14%, financial services 11%, structured finance 20%, U.S. public finance 8%, and international public finance 5%. The report states that total issuance reaches $9.12 trillion on a year-to-date basis in 2026, compared with $8.09 trillion in the same period of 2025.

For 2027, the forecast shows overall issuance growth slowing to 2.7%. Nonfinancial issuance is projected to increase 4.5%, financial services 3.5%, U.S. public finance 4.0%, and international public finance 7.0%, while structured finance is expected to decline 7.0%.

The report also provides forecast ranges for 2026, with total issuance growth seen between 7.7% and 16.6%. Sector ranges are 9% to 19% for nonfinancials, 7% to 15% for financial services, 15% to 25% for structured finance, 5% to 10% for U.S. public finance, and 0% to 9% for international public finance.

Market context and historical trend

The data show issuance has increased steadily from $7.31 trillion in 2022 to $7.71 trillion in 2023, $9.32 trillion in 2024, and $10.41 trillion in 2025. That trajectory places the 2026 forecast in the context of continued expansion, although at a slower annual pace than the jump recorded in the previous year.

Among the underlying sectors, financial services and nonfinancial borrowers remain the largest contributors to global volumes, while structured finance posts the strongest projected growth rate for 2026. S&P Global notes in the document that the report does not constitute a rating action.

In our earlier coverage of sovereign resilience in a higher-rate environment, we examined how persistent geopolitical shocks and elevated fiscal spending can raise refinancing pressure and borrowing risks for governments. The piece noted that emerging and frontier markets are particularly exposed because debt-service costs often outpace their narrower revenue bases, while inflation-sensitive items like energy and food can further strain public finances.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.