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Market liquidity in S&P 500 futures has sharply declined since the start of the Iran conflict, according to Mario Nawfal. He reports that top-of-book depth hit $5.1 million, a level not seen since the significant sell-offs during the April 2025 'Liberation Day' tariff panic.
Nawfal adds that liquidity is now down 80 percent from prior levels.
The significant contraction in S&P 500 futures liquidity amid heightened geopolitical tensions draws parallels with prior periods of market volatility. Similar dynamics were observed during the oil price surge that saw Brent crude top $90, as detailed in Nawfal's analysis of an unprecedented 36 percent rise in oil prices. Broader uncertainties continue to shape investor sentiment, reminiscent of the scrutiny surrounding the Epstein email revelations that cast a spotlight on the nexus between major financial institutions and headline risks.