Matthew Klein: Oil spot price rises 65 percent but future prices remain below drilling returns

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16.03.2026

Matthew Klein: Oil spot price rises 65 percent but future prices remain below drilling returns — Oil spot outpaces future prices, returns limited

Oil spot prices have surged 65 percent, reaching $99, but forward prices for 2027 and 2028 are up only 17 percent and 12 percent, respectively. This is according to Matthew Klein, citing oil market expert Dan Pickering.

Klein highlights that these future levels are not high enough for most producers to earn sufficient returns on expensive new drilling projects.

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The current disconnect between spot and forward oil prices raises questions about long-term investment incentives, paralleling the analysis on how the Brent futures curve offers a risk premium on distant contracts, as previously discussed by Matthew Klein. Moreover, the implications for producers resemble broader debates over policy effectiveness, such as the assessment of tariff effectiveness for U.S. balance of payments in 2026.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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