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Ernie Tedeschi: Payroll growth may be healthy amid shrinking U.S. labor supply
Shrinking labor supply can make even modest payroll growth a sign of economic health, according to Ernie Tedeschi.
Tedeschi highlights significant uncertainty around these labor market conditions and suggests that the unemployment rate, being less sensitive to headcount shifts, should carry more analytical weight than usual.
Tedeschi previously noted that the entry-level share of legal jobs is slightly above trend, while office administration remains in line with earlier patterns, according to recent employment data. He has also observed that, despite labor market acceleration since 2014, U.S. prime age employment still trails the EU, as detailed in a sector comparison. These observations offer context as analysts weigh changing labor supply and headline job figures.
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