Economic Policy and Fiscal Analysis by Ernie Tedeschi
Ernie Tedeschi: U.S. consumer sentiment remains much weaker than in 2019
U.S. consumer sentiment remains significantly weaker than in 2019, according to Ernie Tedeschi. Tedeschi said that even after adjusting for online survey methods and considering shifting ...
U.S. GDP rebound periods after WWII were driven by specific factors, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Ernie Tedeschi pointed out that the two fastest periods of four-quarter real GDP growth in U.S. post-World War II history occurred as bouncebacks from recessions, specifically in the fourth ...
Ernie Tedeschi: Effective tariff rate is 4 percentage points lower than a year ago
The effective tariff rate is currently 4 percentage points lower than it was a year ago. Ernie Tedeschi added that while there may still be lags due to passthrough effects working through the ...
Stage 4 PPI prices increased 8 percent year over year, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Producer Price Index (PPI) stage 4 prices, which cover goods and services about to be sold as final, grew 8 percent year over year, setting a non-pandemic record. Ernie Tedeschi stated that ...
Ernie Tedeschi: California outpaces U.S. in GDP and productivity growth despite favorable climate
Ernie Tedeschi observes that, contrary to what some might expect given California's good weather, the state generally experiences higher GDP and productivity growth than the U.S. as a whole. His ...
Computers and software add 25 bps to core PCE inflation, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Ernie Tedeschi highlights increasing rate sensitivity in the current economic environment. He notes that computers and software are contributing 25 basis points to core PCE inflation, describing ...
Ernie Tedeschi: ARIMA forecast of core goods PCE shows similar pattern to NYFedResearch approach
Ernie Tedeschi points out that a simple univariate ARIMA forecast of core goods PCE, using data before 2025, yields results much like those from the NYFedResearch approach. He adds that the ...
Consumption growth is dampened by higher interest rates outweighing gains from interest income, Ernie Tedeschi analyzes
Ernie Tedeschi examines recent analysis from Goldman Sachs on the impact of higher interest rates on consumption growth. The research separately models the positive influence of increased interest ...
Ernie Tedeschi: Wages rose 3.9 times as much as basket prices between 1983 and 2026
Ernie Tedeschi compares average weekly earnings in April 1983 at $282.92 with those projected for September 2026 at $1,101.88. He highlights that wages increased roughly 3.9 times over 43 years, ...
U.S. adds 29K jobs and unemployment rises to 4.18 percent, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Ernie Tedeschi shares data on the U.S. employment situation for September 2026. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29K jobs during the month, compared to 133K in August. The three-month moving average ...
Ernie Tedeschi: U.S. labor productivity growth exceeds projections since end-2019
Ernie Tedeschi highlights that cumulative growth in U.S. labor productivity since the end of 2019 has outpaced projections from the Congressional Budget Office by 1.6%. He adds that since 2023, ...
Aggregate SaaS revenue held steady despite 2026 sell-off, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Ernie Tedeschi highlighted that the market sell-off in early 2026 did not lead to an overall decline in aggregate SaaS revenue, according to analysis using the Stripe SaaS Index. While aggregate ...
Ernie Tedeschi: SaaS firm revenues accelerated despite market sell-off
Ernie Tedeschi shares that while a significant market sell-off impacted SaaS companies earlier this year, actual revenues for non-AI SaaS firms increased. He cites data from the new Stripe SaaS ...
E-commerce is still under 20 percent of retail trade, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Ernie Tedeschi observes that a significant portion of economic activity continues to be driven by humans, even decades after the start of the dot com boom. He points out that e-commerce, nearly ...
Ernie Tedeschi: Payroll employment growth reaccelerates since February as 2025 plateaus
Ernie Tedeschi observes that payroll employment growth has reaccelerated since February, contrasting with a lack of growth throughout 2025. He suggests that viewing levels rather than growth ...
Data center investment almost reached 4x 2022 levels in 2026 Q2, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Ernie Tedeschi reports that annualized real investment in data centers was nearly four times higher in 2026 Q2 compared to 2022 levels. He also highlights that non-data-center private investment ...
Ernie Tedeschi: Sustained productivity gains needed to stabilize U.S. debt-to-GDP
Ernie Tedeschi highlights the need for an additional full percentage point of total factor productivity growth each year over the next 10 years to stabilize the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio. He ...
Gross Domestic Income provides a different perspective on economic data, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Ernie Tedeschi draws attention to the challenges in current GDP measurement and suggests the value of considering Gross Domestic Income as an alternative metric. He explains that while GDP and ...
Ernie Tedeschi: SPM resources adjusted with BLS distributional chained CPI
Ernie Tedeschi highlights his preference for Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) resources, which incorporate noncash benefits and exclude certain expenses. He shares an example illustrating how ...
Global GDP comparisons made easier by standardization, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Ernie Tedeschi highlights his appreciation for GDP as a metric, while acknowledging its limitations. He points out that a key advantage of GDP is the significant effort invested in standardizing ...
Ernie Tedeschi: Interest rate gap and AI growth firms drive U.S. economic trend
Ernie Tedeschi highlights two key factors behind current economic trends. He points to interest rate differentials between Europe and the U.S. as well as the high concentration of rapidly ...
