Economic Policy and Fiscal Analysis by Ernie Tedeschi
Ernie Tedeschi: U.S. May 2026 jobs grow by 172,000
Ernie Tedeschi reports that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May 2026, following a previous rise of 179,000. He also highlights two-month revisions adding 93,000 jobs and a ...
Poland excludes Ukrainian refugees from economic data, Ernie Tedeschi points out
Ernie Tedeschi highlights that while Poland is often cited as a success story for economic growth, its per capita statistics for 2021-23 require additional context. He notes that these numbers ...
Ernie Tedeschi: Growth gap emerges after 2024 between business and likely-employer applications
Ernie Tedeschi highlights a recent divergence in growth patterns between overall business applications and those likely to employ workers following 2024. According to Tedeschi, much of this gap ...
Lower fiscal deficit helps decrease U.S. trade deficit, Ernie Tedeschi argues
Ernie Tedeschi argues that the most direct approach to lowering the U.S. trade deficit is to reduce the fiscal deficit, rather than focusing solely on interest rates. He emphasizes the ...
Ernie Tedeschi: Software and accessories inflation in PCE is highest since late 1970s
Ernie Tedeschi highlights that software and accessories inflation within the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, categorized under durable goods, has reached its highest level since the ...
Layoff rate slightly above 2022 and 2023 but not a record high, Ernie Tedeschi argues
Ernie Tedeschi pushes back on recent claims about a so-called record high layoff rate, clarifying that the current level is only slightly higher than those seen in 2022 and 2023. He emphasizes ...
Ernie Tedeschi: Labor share in nonfinancial corporate sector fell after 2000
Ernie Tedeschi observes that the distinction between labor and capital is clearer in the Nonfinancial Corporate Business sector. Sectoral and depreciation adjustments generally increase the ...
AI-related capital spending slowdown could weigh on GDP, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Ernie Tedeschi, industry influencer, discusses the potential impact of changes in artificial intelligence-related capital expenditures on U.S. economic growth. He states that while a slowdown in ...
Ernie Tedeschi: AI capex impact on U.S. GDP growth may be overstated by imports
Ernie Tedeschi, industry influencer, discusses how the impact of artificial intelligence capital expenditures on U.S. GDP growth may be limited by the use of imported components and equipment. ...
Lower-income groups report greater nominal wage growth since pre-pandemic, Ernie Tedeschi notes
New data for the first quarter of 2026 reveals that lower earners in the U.S. experienced stronger nominal wage growth compared to higher earners. Ernie Tedeschi highlighted this trend by ...
Ernie Tedeschi: U.S. grocery store margins in 2025 near 25-year lows
U.S. grocery store margins dropped to an average of 2.7 percent in 2025, approaching their lowest point in 25 years. Ernie Tedeschi explained that although reducing retail markups could be a way ...
Need for OER-consistent CPI questioned, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Ernie Tedeschi addresses the rationale behind developing a consumer price index (CPI) that aligns with an owners' equivalent rent–consistent (OER-consistent) methodology. He suggests it is ...
Ernie Tedeschi: Payroll growth may be healthy amid shrinking U.S. labor supply
Shrinking labor supply can make even modest payroll growth a sign of economic health, according to Ernie Tedeschi. Tedeschi highlights significant uncertainty around these labor market conditions ...
U.S. labor market churn rate near Great Recession lows, Ernie Tedeschi notes
The U.S. labor market churn rate has reached one of its lowest points since official records began. Ernie Tedeschi highlighted that this level now rivals the depths seen during the Great ...
Ernie Tedeschi: U.S. labor market began accelerating in 2014 but prime age employment still lags EU
Ernie Tedeschi commented on the U.S. labor market, stating that it began accelerating in 2014. He also observed that U.S. prime age employment has been weaker compared to the European Union for ...
Entry-level share in legal jobs slightly above trend, Ernie Tedeschi notes
Entry-level employment shares in legal, financial, and office administration occupations have not changed significantly from trends seen before 2023. According to Ernie Tedeschi, legal roles are ...
Ernie Tedeschi: FOMC median projects higher long-run growth and R star
Ernie Tedeschi reports that there is no change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections. However, he highlights that the median FOMC participant now sees long-run growth at 2 percent, an increase ...
Profitable third diverges from rest in U.S., Ernie Tedeschi notes
Economist Ernie Tedeschi analyzes recent economic data in an inaugural Stripe Economics post. He observes that while the richest third of U.S. public companies are pulling ahead in ...
Ernie Tedeschi: Services inflation rises to 3.2 percent
Services inflation has broken out of its recent range, according to Ernie Tedeschi. Tedeschi notes that PCE core services inflation, excluding housing and financial imputations, moved above the ...
GDP growth will slow under lower birthrate trends, Ernie Tedeschi says
Lower birthrates are likely to result in slower aggregate real GDP growth. Ernie Tedeschi noted that while overall GDP growth declines in lower-birthrate scenarios, GDP per capita is a more ...
Ernie Tedeschi: Nonfarm business productivity rises 2.8 percent in 2025
Productivity data released today indicate a significant acceleration in nonfarm business productivity. Ernie Tedeschi highlights that productivity over 2025 grew 2.8 percent, up from 2.3 percent ...
