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Ernie Tedeschi: U.S. grocery store margins in 2025 near 25-year lows
U.S. grocery store margins dropped to an average of 2.7 percent in 2025, approaching their lowest point in 25 years. Ernie Tedeschi explained that although reducing retail markups could be a way to manage household grocery costs, actual margins at major retailers like Costco and Walmart were already low and have been in decline since 2022.
Tedeschi has recently commented on labor trends, noting that the entry-level share of legal jobs sits above trend while finance hiring is slightly below trend in his analysis of employment patterns. He has also questioned the need for an OER-consistent CPI, stating that the PCE index remains historically consistent on key measurement choices in a recent review of inflation metrics. These observations add additional context to his views on consumer pricing and retail margins.
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