Chinese export statistics can better capture U.S. import discrepancies, Brad Setser notes

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07.04.2026

Chinese export statistics can better capture U.S. import discrepancies, Brad Setser notes — Chinese export data preferred for trade

Brad Setser highlights a report by Ana Swanson focused on tariff fraud. Setser points out that due to differences between Chinese and U.S. trade data and an incentive to misreport imports to U.S. customs, he generally prefers to rely on Chinese export figures when assessing trade volumes, since these show a smaller decline in reported activity.

The gap between Chinese and U.S. data is presented as a key consideration for understanding the true scale of imports and potential under-reporting.

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Setser has previously observed that recent drops in fx reserves are more pronounced in oil-importing nations such as Turkey and India, according to prior commentary. He has also called attention to diminished Gulf risk, suggesting renewed attention to Europe and China’s roles in global imbalances in an earlier analysis. These themes remain relevant as trade data discrepancies draw new scrutiny.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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