Interest in global imbalance reevaluation grows after calmer Gulf period, Brad Setser notes

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23.03.2026

Interest in global imbalance reevaluation grows after calmer Gulf period, Brad Setser notes — Gulf risk down, global balance focus

Brad Setser reports that the risk of escalation in the Gulf appears to have diminished for the next few days. This calmer environment could create renewed interest in his analysis on the relative contributions of Europe and China to global economic imbalances.

Setser’s commentary signals an opportunity for deeper discussion on global macroeconomic trends, given the reduced geopolitical concerns in the Gulf region.

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Setser previously detailed that Korea’s current account surplus is projected to rise in 2025 but could be offset by accelerating equity outflows, pressuring the won’s outlook in his analysis of South Korea’s external position. He also argued that China’s reported surplus has been understated since 2022 due to changes in the country’s balance-of-payments methodology, as noted in a review of China’s BoP adjustments. These findings provide context for Setser’s ongoing focus on global imbalances.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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