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China’s reported surplus is understated following 2022 as a result of deliberate adjustments to its balance of payments (BoP) methodology.
Brad Setser states that these changes, introduced by China, have led to a lower officially reported surplus figure. Given China’s economic size, Setser emphasizes that the actual surplus remains massive compared to the global economy, and would appear even larger if customs trade data were used.
Setser's latest observations build on his prior examination of the persistent weaknesses within China’s domestic economy, which continue to shape the nation’s external accounts and policy decisions. This discussion also aligns with his analysis of how significant currency movements—such as those driven by the $100B December settlement that supported a stronger CNY—impact reported figures and the broader financial landscape.