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Mike McGlone suggests that U.S. gasoline prices, currently at $3.88 per gallon as of July 10, are on track to decline below $3 in the fourth quarter if historical patterns hold.
He notes that the trend mirrors declines seen in 2008 and 2022, but warns that an escalation of tensions could disrupt this typical movement.
McGlone has previously highlighted weakening crude markets, stating that crude oil may need to drop to $40 to address U.S. and Canadian surpluses in an earlier note (link). In a separate update, he tracked crude oil falling toward $40 per barrel as gold approached $3,400 (link). These past signals set the stage for his current outlook on gasoline prices.