Mike McGlone: Crude may need to fall to $40 to reduce U.S. surpluses

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Mikhail Vnuchkov

1 hour ago

Mike McGlone: Crude may need to fall to $40 to reduce U.S. surpluses — Crude may fall to $40 to curb surpluses

Mike McGlone assesses that persistent surpluses in U.S. and Canadian crude oil supply are driving lower price trends. He highlights that since crude peaked near $147 a barrel in 2008, prices have shown a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with a $120 bounce in the first quarter not reversing this direction.

McGlone suggests that with surpluses approaching 8 million barrels a day, crude prices may have to decline to $40 per barrel to start restraining the growing oversupply.

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Earlier this year, McGlone projected crude oil could temporarily reach $120 per barrel in his 2026 commodity outlook. He later warned that oil prices in 2026 may experience a downturn resembling declines seen in 2008 and 1929, citing pump-then-dump trends in the market in a separate analysis. The latest commentary builds on these earlier assessments of potential volatility and downside risk.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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