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Tracy Shuchart, independent trader and strategist at Independent / Trader, reports that the World Bank expects commodity prices to surge 16% in 2026 due to the ongoing Iran war.
The projection, detailed in the bank's Commodity Markets Outlook, highlights a sharp spike in energy and fertilizer costs as primary drivers of this anticipated increase.
Ongoing conflict in Iran is also squeezing sugar supplies from a key refining hub, prompting a rebound in global prices, according to recent analysis by Shuchart. She previously noted that a two week hold does not solve oil market issues and referenced a March 30 Substack for further details in a separate report. These developments set the backdrop for heightened volatility across commodity markets.