Options markets assign 88% chance to 10000 by 2030, Andy Constan notes

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Options suggest 8250 seen by year end

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Andrey Mastykin

26.05.2026

Options markets assign 88% chance to 10000 by 2030, Andy Constan notes — Options suggest 8250 seen by year end

Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, highlights that options markets are pricing a 56% probability of the index touching 8250 before year end and an 88% chance of reaching 10,000 by 2030.

He advises investors to always own beta but to avoid paying for what he describes as 'nonsense' reflected in such option pricing.

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Constan has previously argued that calls of a market bubble based on single-event analysis are insufficient. He has emphasized a preference for more robust analytical approaches. In an earlier assessment, Constan noted that a $2 trillion SpaceX valuation would put only a 2% loss risk on the S&P 500 if the stock went to zero.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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