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Nonfarm payrolls show minimal growth while household survey declines, David Rosenberg notes
David Rosenberg, founder & president at Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., scrutinizes recent U.S. employment data, highlighting diverging trends in nonfarm payrolls versus the household survey.
Rosenberg points out that the year-over-year increase in nonfarm payrolls stands at just 0.3%, while the companion household job survey shows a 0.3% decline. He questions whether such subdued employment momentum is compatible with an environment that would justify a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Earlier this year, Rosenberg flagged a disconnect between the U.S. nonfarm payroll gain and household job loss figures reported for April. He has also drawn attention to inflation trends, noting that the core CPI excluding rent rose 0.2 percent in April. These observations provide additional context to his recent scrutiny of labor market signals.
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