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Brad Setser: Asia's surplus surge began before 2025 and was missed by IMF
Brad Setser challenges recent assertions that global imbalances are only now becoming excessive. He emphasizes that Asia's surplus began rising before 2025 and criticizes the IMF for overlooking this trend for several years.
Setser suggests that the issue has persisted longer than some acknowledge and that the IMF failed to catch early signs.
Setser previously argued that China requires large-scale exports to balance its rising supply, highlighting potential strains in global trade flows in a 2023 analysis. He has also examined the country's reliance on net exports for growth, raising questions about established expectations for international trade in a recent review. These observations provide context for his ongoing concerns about persistent imbalances.
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