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China’s current account surplus trends differ from customs data, Brad Setser notes
Brad Setser highlights discrepancies in China’s reported current account surplus by comparing monthly customs data with the balance of payments (BoP) figures.
Setser observes a significant divergence in 21/22, where the BoP surplus was notably lower, followed by a recent development in which the BoP surplus appears to be converging with customs data again in the last three quarters.
Setser has previously argued that China relies on large-scale exports to balance its rising supply, raising concerns about trade imbalances in an earlier analysis. In a separate report, he examined China’s growth through net exports and questioned traditional expectations for global trade as noted previously. These earlier findings set the context for his latest comparison of current account figures.
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