Craig Shapiro: Market positioning is spent as CTAs prepare for $45bn sell-off

Craig Shapiro: Market positioning is spent as CTAs prepare for $45bn sell-off
Market risk rises as CTA flows shift

Craig Shapiro highlights growing risks in current market positioning, stating that valuations are leaving no room for error. He notes that on a 2-sigma move down, commodity trading advisors (CTAs) could sell $45 billion, compared to just $7.5 billion in potential buying on the same magnitude of upside.

The commentary points to possible market instability heading into the second quarter, with a significant imbalance between downside and upside shock absorbers.

Shapiro recently identified Broadcom’s AI revenue guidance miss as the first credible repricing signal for the sector in 2026, according to a past report published earlier this year. He also highlighted a 10% drop in KOSPI that impacted Nasdaq futures, which were down 3% pre-market, noting that dealers remained long gamma at cyclical lows during the selloff. Both events reflect the author’s continued focus on key market inflection points.

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