Michael Green: U.S. deficit dynamics add $1.4-1.5 trillion over three years

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U.S. deficit model adds $1.4-1.5 trillion

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05.08.2026

Michael Green: U.S. deficit dynamics add $1.4-1.5 trillion over three years — U.S. deficit model adds $1.4-1.5 trillion

Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, analyzes the impact of dynamic fiscal modeling on the U.S. deficit outlook.

He contrasts a static calculation with an approach that incorporates annual bill resets, coupon rollovers, and primary deficit pricing at 10%, noting that the cumulative effect results in approximately $1.4-1.5 trillion of added deficit over three years, as incremental interest is financed at higher rates.

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Green has previously commented on how rising interest rates can accelerate the velocity of money and encourage faster deployment of borrowed funds. In another analysis, he outlined why investing in currently dominant companies forms part of a future-focused strategy. His recent fiscal modeling builds on this track record of examining how rates and market positioning interact with broader economic outcomes.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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