Macro Strategy and Market Insights by Michael Green
Arini may be the Bear Stearns of the 2027 cycle, Michael Green writes
David Meneret at Mill Hill Capital was described by Michael Green as having accurately characterized Arini as the offer on high-yield credit default swaps. In his remarks, Michael Green, chief ...
Michael Green: Anthropic seen as next major IPO with levered funds interest
Anthropic is being positioned as the next significant IPO, with levered funds already expressing interest. Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, ...
Real wage progress differs with volatility, Michael Green notes
Three years of consistent 2% real wage gains result in a total increase of 6.12%, while the same arithmetic average from a volatile series of +6%, -6%, +6% leaves the total gain at 5.62% instead. ...
Michael Green: Only one benefit truly matters in SPCX and TSLA merger
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, stated that while there are many benefits to a merger between SPCX and TSLA, only one is truly ...
Yield-driven convexity risk is rising, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, Michael Green of Simplify Asset Management, stated that both he and Harley are drawing attention to the increasing risk associated with convexity as yield levels influence prices. ...
Michael Green: U.S. mortgage applications among age 25-54 drop 60 percent since 2021
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, draws attention to a sharp decline in U.S. mortgage applications among individuals aged 25 to 54. Green cites ...
Distressed inherited home sales could rise, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, reflects on the impact of nearly 100 years since the reform of non-recourse mortgages. He suggests that if ...
Michael Green: Fed continues rate hikes for credibility
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, comments on the ongoing debate regarding the Federal Reserve's need to continue raising interest rates to ...
Short-term rates drive market repricing, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, observes that recent market moves are not due to investor concerns about holding long-term debt, but rather a ...
Michael Green: Market sentiment toward U.S. government bonds remains negative
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, remarks on the notably strong aversion to U.S. government bonds in current market sentiment. Green references ...
Fifty economists use coincident data as leading, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, commented on a group of 50 economists who presented a coincident indicator as though it were a leading one in a ...
Michael Green: Long-term Sharpe ratio for broad stock markets near 0.2
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, comments that the prospective long-term Sharpe ratio of broad stock markets is currently around 0.2. He ...
Debate over 25bps rate moves and inflation accuracy continues, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, draws attention to ongoing debates within the financial community on social media regarding the effectiveness of ...
Michael Green: U.S. deficit dynamics add $1.4-1.5 trillion over three years
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, analyzes the impact of dynamic fiscal modeling on the U.S. deficit outlook. He contrasts a static calculation ...
If all investors index, no single managers form index, Michael Green argues
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, discusses the structural implications of full market indexing. He points out that when all investors move to ...
Michael Green: Funding challenges for single managers outside index inclusion
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, raises questions about how single managers can secure funding if they are not part of an index. He notes that ...
Rising interest rates accelerate fund use, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, comments on the rising velocity of money and its relationship to interest rates. He suggests that borrowing at ...
Michael Green: Passive share increases challenge informationally efficient markets
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, references the Grossman-Stiglitz theory about the impossibility of fully informationally efficient markets. He ...
Asset price reflects marginal supply and demand balance, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, explains that the price of an asset is determined by the interaction of marginal supply and demand. He notes ...
Michael Green: Investing in dominant companies reflects a future-focused strategy
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, comments on investment approaches that focus on leading companies currently dominating the market. Green uses a ...
NY Fed uses lagging inflation expectations over market metrics, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, questions the New York Federal Reserve's reliance on lagging inflation expectations data, suggesting the central ...
