Macro Strategy and Market Insights by Michael Green
Payroll jobs up $503,000 but household employment down $473,000, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, highlights a significant gap between two key U.S. employment surveys. Green observes that over the last year, ...
Michael Green: Overvalued equity can threaten core company value
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, highlights a quote from Michael Jensen in 2005 that discusses the risks of a company's equity becoming ...
Rising food insecurity is tied to weaker consumer sentiment, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, recommends a recent report that scrutinizes the U.S. Federal Reserve’s temporary focus on equities. He ...
Michael Green: U.S. military purchase guarantees played major role in rare earths shift
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, discusses the impact of U.S. military purchase guarantees on the rare earths market. Green points out that ...
Respect in doubt for Fed Chair exceeding 2 percent thresholds, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, questions the credibility of the Federal Reserve Chair who has consistently allowed inflation to exceed the 2 ...
Michael Green: Market decisions dominated by algorithms over portfolio managers
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, comments on the evolving dynamics of portfolio management. Green suggests that human portfolio managers have ...
Disagreement on Bitcoin principles highlights community divisions, Michael Green argues
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, raises concerns about Bitcoin's underlying principles and its status as sound money. Green points out ...
Michael Green: Powell's Fed policy in 2018-2019 was overly reactive
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, argues that Jerome Powell's tenure as Fed Chair was defined by an overly reactive policy. Green states that ...
Arbitrage emerges amid passive dominance, Michael Green notes
Michael Green comments on a recent article that, in his view, overlooks the roles of ETFs, options, and payment for order flow in current markets. He argues that market 'renaissance' is not due to ...
Michael Green: 1950s tax code redistributed luck and boosted aggregate outcomes
Michael Green comments on the unequal distribution of expected value, which he says often ends up in the hands of a small number of individuals who attribute their gains to skill rather than luck. ...
Stabilized ETF flows suggest ex-ETF sales impact Bitcoin, Michael Green notes
Bitcoin ETF flows have stabilized but remain relatively muted since their October peak, according to Michael Green. Green points out that these muted ETF flows now provide less explanatory power ...
Michael Green examines risk premiums in Fed futures market
Michael Green highlights an important financial interpretation regarding Fed futures' role in the market. He explains that Fed futures are not meant solely for predicting the next Federal Reserve ...
Michael Green guides new finance professionals in industry options
Michael Green is helping guide individuals interested in finance by providing insights into the industry's structure. As they show interest, he shares thoughts on buy side, sell side, private ...
Market stress tests ETF arbitrage resilience, Michael Green argues
Michael Green explores market-maker strategies during periods of market stress. He draws a parallel between ETF creation and redemption processes and how market-makers navigate these scenarios. ...
Michael Green urges reevaluation of economic theories
Michael Green calls for a critical reassessment of current economic theories, suggesting they are the root of many contemporary issues. He highlights work by researchers from the Santa Fe ...
Michael Green critiques CPI adjustments impact
Michael Green has raised a thought-provoking point about the interpretation of CPI data through a lens of hedonically adjusted measures. He suggests that a comparative analysis of the CPI might ...
Michael Green criticizes use of CPI for baseline participation
Michael Green has criticized the use of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a measure for baseline participation. He argues that CPI is not effective for this purpose, addressing a statement by a ...
Michael Green argues monetary policy premise relies on Euler coefficient
Michael Green raises a significant point about monetary policy and its foundational reliance on the Euler coefficient. Without a full understanding of its implications, managing inflation through ...
Michael Green clarifies loan-deposit relationship in banking
Michael Green spotlighted the complex relationship between loans and deposits. He reiterated how loans create deposits but also emphasized that deposits function as bank funding, enabling further ...
Michael Green assesses S&P 500 trends amid sentiment reversal
Michael Green suggests that analyzing S&P 500 trends through its 200-day moving average may reveal surprising divergences. He emphasizes the mean-reverting nature of sentiment compared to the ...
Michael Green signals downturn in cash flows for nuclear fusion and AI technology
Michael Green, a respected voice in the finance sector, signals a downturn in expectations for free cash flows in sectors like nuclear fission reactors and superconducting quantum processors using ...
