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Payroll jobs up $503,000 but household employment down $473,000, Michael Green notes
Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, highlights a significant gap between two key U.S. employment surveys.
Green observes that over the last year, the establishment survey reports payroll jobs rising by about $503,000, while the household survey shows employment dropping by roughly $473,000. He also points out that the birth/death model adds about $92,000 per month ($1,104,000 per year) to payroll estimates, but this adjustment is excluded from the household survey.
Green has previously flagged internal pressures from overvalued equity as a risk to core company value in a recent study. He also pointed to a report linking rising food insecurity to softer U.S. consumer sentiment. These observations add additional context to his ongoing analysis of economic indicators.
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