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Michael Kantro: S&P 500 P/Es have compressed by over 3 points since Q4/25

Michael Kantro: S&P 500 P/Es have compressed by over 3 points since Q4/25
S&P 500 P/Es show rate impact

Michael Kantro observes that equities are already reflecting higher interest rates, as evidenced by a compression of over 3 points in S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratios since Q4/25. He attributes this decline to rising rates, increased oil prices, and the Federal Reserve's more hawkish tone.

Kantro suggests that multiples may continue to face downward pressure if these factors persist.

Kantro previously pointed out that lower price-to-earnings ratios this year have been driven mostly by declines in Magnificent 7 stocks, describing valuation as a poor timing tool in an earlier analysis. He also examined the impact of the Treasury’s surprise buyback announcement on the bond market and government issuance in a separate report. These insights provide additional context to his current views on market valuations.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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