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Diane Swonk highlights a notable shift in the relationship between two key measures of U.S. inflation: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
She observes that, historically, CPI has tended to run hotter than the PCE, which is the measure targeted by the Federal Reserve. Recently, however, this relationship has reversed, with the nonfood and non-energy measure of PCE now a full percent higher than core CPI. Swonk points to shelter costs as a primary factor behind this development.
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Swonk has previously raised concerns that inflation shocks have become routine and disruptive over the past five years, with price impacts felt across most sectors except data centers and high-income households, as reported in an earlier article. She also cautioned that U.S. diesel export bans could further elevate domestic prices by shifting demand, according to a separate report. These warnings provide context to her latest observations on inflation measures.